Lucky Seven Series Part 1 – Predicting the careers of the top seven running backs taken in 2013

(Please see the Lucky Seven Series explanation for more details on the analysis)

1 - Giovani Bernard – North Carolina

1^st picks: Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, Knowshon Moreno, Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, William Green, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis

Statistical Analysis:  Statistically speaking, the first player taken at the running back position has been better than any other spot.   The average total yards per season (rushing and receiving combined) is 1112.08 and the average total touchdowns (rushing and receiving combined) is 7.32, both are the top among any other draft position.  In looking at the consistency of the spot, the standard deviation for average total yards per season was second best among the sample.  However, it was the second worst within the sample for average total touchdowns per season.   Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 2^nd best player based on total yards in the sample in Adrian Peterson and the worst player in the sample was Mark Ingram at 55^th so a span of 53, which ranks as the best span.  Essentially, odds are that if you draft the first running back they will most likely turn out to be pretty good.

This is a group that has been pretty consistently good with six players averaging over 1000 total yards per season.  Steven Jackson is just under the average of 1500 yards per season mark at 1495 and Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson are over 1500 total yards per season.  The level of variance between players shown in the standard deviation would lead to believing that there is a very good chance that history supports success at this position.

There were no other running backs drafted out of North Carolina in the sample so there is no basis for success or failure based on school.

The Verdict:  History supports that Giovani Bernard should be successful.  However, he does not fall into a workhorse back category like many of the others drafted in this spot.  That can be good and bad, William Green and Mark Ingram were more workhorse back types and both were terrible pass catchers over their careers and they represent the worst running backs picked in this spot.  Based on the runners in this group it seems that there is a good chance he could have a similar career to Reggie Bush (984 average total yards a season with an average of 6.28 touchdowns a season).

2 – LeVeon Bell – Michigan State

2^nd picks: Doug Martin, Ryan Williams, Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Marshawn Lynch, Laurence Maroney, Cedric Benson, Chris Perry, Larry Johnson, T.J. Duckett, Deuce McAllister, Thomas Jones

Statistical Analysis: The second pick aligns with being the second best for average total yards per season and average total touchdowns per season.  Since Doug Martin is bloating these stats a bit, I eliminated his average to see if it would still be the second best and this spot still ranks 2^nd for total yards average and is 3^rd for total touchdown average.  The average total yards per season is 849.35 and the average total touchdowns is 5.31.  This means that there is a drastic drop-off between the quality of player that you get between the first and second player in the draft.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the best player based on total yards in the sample in Doug Martin and the 83^rd best player, and the worst player in this slot was Ryan Williams so a span of 82.

Another interesting thing to look at is that the worst average total yards for the first pick is 596.5.  Four players fall beneath that threshold for the second pick and only one player is above the 1500 total yard average mark (Doug Martin of course).  There are only two instances where a second pick has a better total yards a season average than the first pick: Ryan Mathews and Doug Martin.  Strangely enough, Ryan Matthews has a slightly lower average touchdown per season and Doug Martin’s is identical.

Only one player in this group was selected outside of round 1, Ryan Williams.  At that he was still selected ten slots ahead of where Le’Veon Bell was selected.  Williams is statistically the worst player selected at this spot in the 2000’s but he is still young so he may surpass the head scratching (even at the time) selection of Chris Perry in the first round. 

History is working against Bell when it comes to school attended.  Only one other player selected in the top seven running backs has come from Michigan State, T.J. Duckett.  55 colleges are represented within the sample and Michigan State ranks 44 among running backs in this sample for total yards average and 14th for touchdown average.  Duckett was also the second running back taken in his respective draft. 

The Verdict:  History does not exactly support Bell being a superstar nor does the college program he came from.  However, he is more of a workhorse back than Bernard so he may turn out better.  There is so much boom or bust in this group it is hard to predict.  More or less, this appears to be a safe spot to pick a player and most of the players that were supposed to be good turned out to be good.  That is to say, generally speaking Chris Perry and Ryan Williams were not considered to actually be the second best running backs in their respective draft, they were boneheaded picks.   Among the players picked in this spot he probably looks the most like Jonathon Stewart in that he is a big back that may be in a running back by committee situation in Pittsburg.  Personally, I really like him a lot and I have said so in the past but history does not support that he will be anything better than a good back.

3 - Montee Ball - Wisconsin

  

3^rd picks: David Wilson, Shane Vereen, Jahvid Best, Beanie Wells, Felix Jones, Kenny Irons, DeAngelo Williams, Cadillac Williams, Kevin Jones, Musa Smith, DeShaun Foster, Michael Bennett, Ron Dayne

Statistical Analysis: This is where things start to get really interesting.  The third running back taken has not turned out nearly as well as other spots.  One exception has been made to this group, David Irons was not added to the statistics because he never played in an NFL game.  So he is listed but I did not factor him into the sample.  The average total yards per season was 627.18 and the average total touchdowns was 3.84.  In both cases this was a major drop off compared to some of the other groups.  This slot ranks as 5^th in both average total yards a season and average total touchdowns a season.  Interestingly enough, this group had the smallest standard deviation in both categories.  This reveals that historically speaking, teams should know what they are getting with the third running back taken; average at best.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 22^nd (The worst ranking of any 1 group’s top player)best player based on total yards in the sample in DeAngelo Williams and the 84^th best player in the sample in Musa Smith so a span of 62.  This demonstrates the consistent mediocrity at best history of this slot.

One really interesting thing about this group is that statistically speaking the second and third best players were both drafted by the Lions; Jahvid Best and Kevin Jones.  This also tells us how bad this group really is.  DeAngelo Williams is the only player with a 1000+ Total yard average in the entire group.  The only player in this group that really sticks out as being particularly bad is Musa Smith, although he was the lowest draft pick of the group.  David Irons cannot be blamed for having a career ending injury, but I remember at the time thinking it was a bit of a reach. 

One of the most interesting things to point out about this position is that Ball is the third Wisconsin running back to be the third running back selected.  That works against Ball as Wisconsin running backs rank 46^th in average rushing yards per season and 43^rd in average touchdowns per season within the sample.  Maybe three times is a charm for Wisconsin running backs but Ball seems to have two things working against him.

The Verdict:  History has shown that very mediocre at best running backs have been taken at this slot.  To compound on this, Wisconsin running backs in the sample have been particularly weak.  While this isn’t the worst slot based on averages per season it hosts the worst top player in DeAngelo Williams by over 300 yards average.  That is quite a margin.  Sorry Montee but history is working against you on this one, he looks like he will be a bust based on history.

4 – Eddie Lacy – Alabama

4^th Picks: Isaiah Pead, Mikel Leshoure, Dexter McCluster                  , LeSean McCoy, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Henry, Joseph Addai, J.J. Arrington, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Clinton Portis, Anthony Thomas, Shaun Alexander

Statistical Analysis:  So we have arrived at the spot that inspired me to do this analysis.  The average total yards per season was 742.46 and the average total touchdowns was 5.11—a marked improvement over the previous position with a ranking of 4^th for average total yards and third for average total touchdowns.  The standard deviation for total yards was 418.07 and total touchdowns was 3.93 which ranks as fourth and seventh respectively.  This represents some interesting inconsistencies between players.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 12^th best player based on total yards in the sample in LeSean McCoy and the second worst player (89^th) in the sample in Chris Henry so a span of 77.  Strangely enough, Henry was picked with the 50^th pick and McCoy with the 53^rd pick in their respective drafts.    Four players in this group have an average of over 1000 total yards per season with nobody making it to the 1500 mark.

This is an interesting group of running backs as you have a lot of smaller guys and role players but also some workhorse backs.  The oddball pick, even at the time, was J.J. Arrington as he was considered to be more of a kick returner than anything else and just a few years later the Cardinals picked a similar player in LaRod Stephens-Howling in the 7^th round instead of the 2^nd round and their production for the Cardinals was similar except LSH was a better kick returner.  You also get players like Tatum Bell who was just a flash in the pan and may have had one of the strangest incidents in recent memory when he stole Rudi Johnson’s luggage.    

Alabama running backs have been a real mixed bag in the NFL.  Trent Richardson looks to be a solid player and Shaun Alexander was very good for a long time.  However, Mark Ingram has been average and Glenn Coffee flipped out and retired after one year, though he looked promising his rookie year.    Alabama ranks as the 22nd best school based on total yards and 7^th for total touchdowns.  

The Verdict:  History supports that this is a boom or bust pick in both the players chosen in this slot as well as the players drafted from Alabama.  With that said, the only truly poor pick from Alabama was Glenn Coffee with Ingram being at least average.  As much as I would love to say that Lacy will be dynamite, history would dictate that he has a 50/50 shot at being good.

5 – Christine Michael – Texas A & M

5^th picks: LaMichael James, Daniel Thomas, Toby Gerhart, Shonn Greene, Chris Johnson, Brian Leonard, LenDale White, Eric Shelton, Julius Jones, Justin Fargas, Maurice Morris, LaMont Jordan, Trung Canidate

Statistical Analysis:  The average total yards per season was 587.28 and the average total touchdowns was 2.84.  In both cases this is a significantly poor slot for running backs as that ranks 6^th and 7^th respectively.  The standard deviation for total yards was 410.61 and total touchdowns was 2.59 which ranks as third and second respectively.  Essentially, the odds are that if you take a running back in this slot, he will not be good.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 3^rd best player based on total yards in the sample in Chris Johnson and the worst player (90^th) in the sample in Eric Shelton so a span of 87, the worst span of any group.  Interestingly enough both Chris Johnson and Trung Canidate were both still first round picks—compared to this past draft where the Michael was the last pick of the second round.    One player in this group has an average of over 1000 total yards per season and is above the 1500 mark, Chris Johnson of course. 

This is an interesting spot for me because there are so many players I had strong feelings about when they were coming out of college.  Interestingly enough Christine Michael is coming into a situation where there is a very good established running back or two (Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin).  Many of the running backs picked in this slot were in the same situation: LaMichael James (Frank Gore), Toby Gerhart (Adrian Peterson), Brian Leonard (Steven Jackson), Justin Fargas (A stable of running backs including Charlie Garner and Tyrone Wheatly), Maurice Morris (Shaun Alexander), and Trung Canidate (Marshall Faulk).  In most of these cases, these were running backs that were mid-career so the drafting of these players meant that they were going to be role players more than anything else.

Texas A&M has only had one other player in the top seven in the 2000s, Mike Goodson.  Goodson is a different type of running back, more of a speed back.  However, there are some interesting similarities in that both will be considered role players.  Goodson also had a similar experience in falling out of favor while at A&M just as Michael has.  Texas A&M ranks as 48 for total yards and 49 for total touchdowns. 

The Verdict: There is a lot working against Michael in this slot as there are some terrible inconsistencies with players and some very bad players that were overdrafted.  However, based on the needs of the Seahawks, they are probably just looking for a role player and history supports this being a spot for role players.  If the Seahawks are looking for a replacement for Lynch, this spot would dictate that Michael will be a failure.

6 – Knile Davis - Arkansas

6^th picks:  Ronnie Hillman, Demarco Murray, Ben Tate, Glen Coffee, Matt Forte, Brandon Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Mewelde Moore, Artose Pinner, Ladell Betts, Travis Henry, Travis Prentice

Statistical Analysis: The average total yards per season was 752.85 and the average total touchdowns was 3.87.  In both cases this is a very good slot for running backs as that ranks 3rd and 4^th respectively.  The standard deviation for total yards was 448.44 and total touchdowns was 2.95 which ranks as third and second respectively.  The consistency tells us that odds are you will get one of the top producing running backs in the draft, though there is some bust factor involved.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 6^th best player based on total yards in the sample and the lowest ranking was Artose Pinner at 82 so a span of 76 so slightly better than the 4^th running back taken.  An interesting thing to note on this group is that if we look at players that have a combined number of 1400 yards average, this group has the second most (to the first players picked) with three.

There have been two Arkansas running backs to be in the top 7 since 2000 and they played together—Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.  While neither has set the league on fire, McFadden has been dynamic when healthy and Jones has been decent, though neither has lived up to their high draft status.  With that said, Arkansas ranks as the 20^th for average combined yards in the sample 28^th average touchdowns (out of 55).  Things do not look terrible with Davis for this spot based on the history of the school. 

This group sports three backs that have been consistent solid contributors to their teams.  Demarco Murray may eventually be added to that group if he stays healthy.  It is hard to factor in a player like Coffee, who showed potential but just gave up (or had his calling if you wish to believe that).  But for the most part everybody in this group had some form of solid contribution at some point in their careers even if they were short careers. 

The Verdict: History would support that Davis turns out to be at least decent.  He is coming into a situation where he will be given a very good shot to be a contributor and, given Jamaal Charles’ injury history, may have a shot to start some games this year.  Given that this is a pretty consistent slot, Davis appears to be more boom than bust and his school history supports that.

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7 – Jonathan Franklin – UCLA

7^th picks: Johnathan Franklin, Bernard Pierce, Stevan Ridley, Montario Hardesty, Mike Goodson, Ray Rice, Lorenzo Booker, Brian Calhoun, Vernand Morency, Michael Turner, Domanick Davis, Lamar Gordon, James Jackson, J.R. Redmond

Statistical Analysis: The average total yards per season was 574.29 and the average total touchdowns was 2.89.  This ranks as 7^th and 6^th respectively.  The standard deviation for total yards was 488.29 and total touchdowns was 3.33 which ranks as 7^th and 5^th respectively.  The inconsistency among running backs shows that this is a boom or bust slot.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 5^th best player based on total yards in the sample and the lowest ranking was Brian Calhoun at 88 so a span of 83, the second worst among the sample.  This group has one player who is above 1500 total yards a season on average in Ray Rice with Dominick Davis just a hair behind at 1490.  These lead us to see that there is a large amount of boom or bust factor with this group, leaning more towards the bust factor.

When you get this far into the draft, there will be more role players by nature.  However, this is still a group of players that have had a solid shot at playing and most have not turned out to be successful.  It is also interesting to look at a player like Michael Turner who was behind Tomlinson for a number of years so his stats are a little misleading.  Looking back though, there is no reason that Ray Rice should have been the seventh running back taken given his college career.  You also have the enigma that is Domanick Davis’ career.  This is a strange group to say the least.

There were two instances of players coming out of UCLA, DeShaun Foster and Maurice Jones-Drew.  So history would support that this is again a boom or semi-bust type of situation.  DeShaun Foster’s biggest issue was his attitude and ego.  What makes Jones-Drew the way he is, is his chip on his shoulder attitude.  Franklin is more Jones-Drew than Foster.

The Verdict:  It is interesting to see players as good as Ray Rice in this slot and the support of very good players (Foster had talent he was just an egomaniac) from the same school as Franklin.  However, this slot marks the biggest group of boom or bust players and there is a lack of consistency.  This leads me to believe that Franklin is truly a 50/50 shot but unlike most players in this slot, he will have a better opportunity than most to play right away.  Just because I like my Packers and I love the pick, he is different than Foster and I could imagine his career being right in-between the two from UCLA.

So there you have it.  There are a significant number of interesting things you can see from these statistics and I will continue on with perhaps a few other postings on Lucky Seven and these stats.

Thank you everybody for reading!  If you are interested in the spreadsheet feel free to send me an email, AndreMarshallSmith@gmail.com

Lucky Seven Series

Lucky Seven Series Explanation

In preparation for the NFL season, the unfortunate retirement of Jahvid Best, a strange conversation on NFL radio a few months back on if Curtis Martin was better than LaDainian Tomlinson, and the Packers two running backs they just drafted I started to think about running backs.  So I started to look back at the history of running backs in the 2000s.  This led me to an over extensive analysis of the top seven (lucky 7 or that the Packers took Jonathan Franklin at 7?) running backs taken in the draft since 2000.  Before the analysis I wondered if there were patterns in where running backs were picked.  So I decided to try and predict the futures of the seven running backs taken in this year’s draft based on historical statistics.  Nerdy huh?  In any case, I spent a great deal more time on all of this and discovered a lot of really strange and interesting information. 

So the system I used was looking at a players average yards rushing, average rushing touchdowns, average receiving yards, and average receiving touchdowns per season for their careers up until either retirement or the 2012 season.  From there I looked at the combined number of rushing and receiving yards and the combined number of rushing and receiving Touchdowns.  Obviously, the newer players skewered some of the data a bit, particularly Doug Martin.  There is so much information that I looked at and plotted in my spreadsheet that I decided I would do a series of lucky 7 blogs (hopefully) looking at different things.  90 running backs were analyzed (David Irons was excluded from most of the analysis done).

There were a few exceptions that I made. 

-        If a player primarily played fullback in the NFL I did not include them in the analysis. 

o   This means that B.J. Askew, Greg Jones, and Cedric Cobbs were excluded

o   J.R. Redmond was included in the sample because he played both HB and FB

-        If a player missed the entire season without stepping on the field that season was excluded from the statistics

o   This eliminated one season for Willis McGahee, one season for Jamal Lewis, and one season for Mikel LeShoure

-        David Irons was included in the list but he never had an NFL statistic due to injury.  Therefore, his stats were removed from all of the analysis except the analysis on Auburn players in the sample.

NFL Draft 2013

So here is my annual NFL Draft Blog.  Sorry I am packing everything in one posting.  I will update if somebody else sticks out in the next couple of weeks.  After the draft I will be analyzing everything as well.

Without further ado:

Guys that I really like in this Draft/intriguing guys:

Eric Fisher LT Central Michigan – I think both him and Joekel will be good but I think Fisher is just a meaner player.  He is getting a lot of comparisons to Joe Staley because he has a similar physical make-up and is from the same school but I think he is a different player, probably a bit more of a mauler type.

Lane Johnson LT Oklahoma – There is something very intriguing about a left tackle that used to play quarterback.  I don’t think he is quite ready yet but I am intrigued

Kyle Long LT Oregon – A total boom or bust type player.  He has overcome a lot of stupid decisions and a part of me really believes that he is going to put it all together.  One odd thing is that he seems to have a strange attitude about being a Long (Howie Long is his Dad) and almost seems to want to disassociate based on an interview I heard.  This makes me think he is perhaps a little bit too much of a loner.

Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan State– I really like this guy a lot.  I have been burned in the past with MSU running backs and players but I really see a lot of Steven Jackson in him, though he is not quite as hard-nosed.  One of my favorite players in the draft.

Jordan Mills RT Lousiana Tech – I heard an interview with this guy at the Senior Bowl (he was a late addition) and I was intrigued with him.  After checking him out I really started to like him.  He is not going to be a left tackle in the NFL but I think he could be a very good to great RT.  He just has that tough mad at the world chip on the shoulder attitude.

Brian Schwenke C Cal – He may be my favorite player in this draft because he just plays.  He plays smart, with strength, and is a line leader.  You want your center to play with attitude while keeping their head on straight and I think Schwenke does just that.

The Missouri Western Boys – Two guys I am very intrigued with from the same small school:

David Bass OLB/DE looks to have some solid raw talent and pass rushing ability but he is very raw.

Michael Hill RB – Humble attitude with confidence.  6-0  210 pounds so he has decent size and looks to have some solid quickness.  He does not have quite the shakes of an NFL runner and looks perhaps a little straight linish but he lit it up when given the chance so he is worth a late round pick.

Trevardo Williams OLB Connecticut – I heard an interview with this kid and read up a bit about him.  Right now it seems like he is primarily a pass rusher and needs work on the other parts and he is a bit small for playing DE and a 3-4 OLB.  However, so were Elvis Dumerville and Jason Taylor and I think he has a shot at being just one level below both of them.

Conner Vernon WR Duke – When I watched him play, he just made plays.  He looks faster than he times and looks like he finds ways to get open and find soft spots.  I say this almost every year but he has some Ricky Proehl to him.

Ziggy Ansah DE/OLB (3-4) BYU – I really do not buy into raw physical guys all that much.  His path has been strikingly similar to Jason Pierre Paul but he is even less experienced.  With that in mind, when I saw him play at the Senior Bowl, I saw a very instinctual and aware player who also was pretty darn good at stopping the run.  If he is this raw he may have a bright future.  If the Packers traded up to get him I would not be upset.

Zavier Gooden OLB Missouri – Again, this is a guy that really stood out to me at the Senior Bowl.  He is a little light and is not a blow you up linebacker yet.  However, he has some great instincts and always seems to be around the play.  He was a safety and still retains some of that speed.  He is not for everybody but I think he has a similar make-up to Derrick Brooks when he came out of college but a step below.

Kerwynn Williams RB Utah State – This was a guy that stood out to me at the East-West Shrine Game.  He is a runner and needs to work on all of the other things like pass protection that running backs need to do in the NFL.  But as a runner, I think he has some special skills.  Not your bellcow but a very good rotation guy.

Dennard Robinson Michigan – What the heck do you do with this guy?  He is a great athlete but he showed not so great hands at the Senior Bowl, though he looked better catching at the combine.  His best position may be a situation RB and QB on trick plays.  He is most likely going to be overdrafted but could be an interesting pick-up after round 4 if he lasts.

Now For QB’s – Given that it is the most important position I want to outline my thoughts on some of the top prospects.  When I watched the Senior Bowl I saw a lot of inaccuracy with the quarterbacks and nobody really thrilled me except EJ Manuel. 

I think there are two guys that could start in this league eventually

Geno Smith – He seems to have all of the tools, accuracy, etc but for some reason people are talking him down.  There has also been some talk of his lack of football intelligence and that he came off as a little cocky in NFL interviews.  Every interview I heard with him does not support this but if I knew what to look for I would not be blogging this.  I think he may need some time in the league to develop on probably a similar schedule to Steve McNair.  But one of the key things I liked about him is that in an interview he was set up to say “most definitely” but instead chose “certainly”.  A patient team will be happy with him.

E.J. Manuel – I really like this guy.  I think he is a winner above all else and he is a pretty darn good athlete on top of that.  When I saw him play, he just brought a presence to the field and found ways to win.  He needs some time to develop though—at least two years.  However, I think he may be able to come off the bench during that time period and rally a team to win a game or two.

Matt Barkley – What to do with this guy?  A year ago he seemed like a legit quarterback but some of his downfalls surfaced.  Part of me thinks he is a Brian Brohm clone.  I think he may be a step above that but he is not going to be a top quarterback in this league.  I am thinking like Ty Detmer kind of career.

Mike Glennon – This guy is getting a lot of press and I do not really understand it.  Okay, he has a big arm and he is tall but he is really inaccurate.  I think he has bust written all over him.

Tyler Bray – Falls into the same category as Glennon but I think he has better raw tools.  He seems like a guy that just has not put it all together yet and he should have.

Ryan Nassib – I see him as more of a system type quarterback.  He reminds me a little bit of Kellen Clemons in that he theoretically should be good but something is just missing when he is out there.  He has a shot at developing and starting one day but I think he is a few years away at best.

Zac Dysert – Again, he is somebody that really looked bad when I watched him at the Senior Bowl and looked wildly inaccurate.  He reminds me of Charlie Frye a little bit.  He will not make it in the NFL.

Tyler Wilson and Landry Jones both seem to be really strong characters that can play decent for an NFL team.  I think they can both win some games for a team but they seem like the type of guys that somebody will always be looking to replace.  Very similar to Kyle Orton’s career.

I have to throw in my Boy’s little Brother-Jordan Rodgers – I actually think that Jordan is being underrated because he is not his brother and well, he is not his brother.  That does not mean he cannot play.  He is not ready yet but I think he has some potential.  He reminds me a little bit of Matt Hasselbeck when he came out of BC.  I want him on the Packers so he can go to QB school next year and I think he can develop into a decent overall player.

Busts

D.J. Fluker OT Alabama - has bust written all over him in my mind.  He is big and strong but he seems oafy out there when I have seen him.  There seems to be a guy like him every year and these guys all end up being mild to major busts. 

Anybody from Clemson – I know I said it last year but it is seriously funny to me.

Marcus Lattimore  South Carolina- It pains me to write this and it may seem like an odd one but it is so dangerous to put faith in a running back who has torn his ACL.  Both Frank Gore and Willis McGahee managed to recover and put together good (McGahee) and excellent (Gore) NFL careers.  But I think somebody may gamble too early (anything above the 4^th round) and lose on him.

Alec Ogletree LB Georgia – It is a shame that such a talented guy cannot stay out of trouble.  When the spot light is on you and you cannot avoid drinking and driving, you are not very smart.  He will continue to get into trouble in the NFL and ruin a very promising career.  The other thing that one has to wonder is if he was just surrounded by very good talent.  He had a monster of a man in front of him and excellent guys outside of him.  Wasted talent.

Tavon Austin WR West Virginia – I don’t think he is going to be a full on bust but if he goes in the first round, teams are reaching.  That is not to say that he is not a very good player but the impact of guys like him seem limited.  Look at Dexter McCluster who has a very similar build and type of player.  Yeah, you like him but how much impact does he really have? 

Jonathon Cooper G N.C. – I looked at this guy and read a bit about him and it sounds like a lot of Jeckyl and Hyde with him.  Sometimes it seems like he is amazing and other times it seems like he is giving up.  An offensive lineman who is known to let pain bother him is in the wrong business.  I think he is not going to make it in the NFL.

Kawann Short DT Purdue – Maybe I am just soured on Purdue Lineman but he also seems to be a bit of a lazy, rely too much on natural talent kind of guy.  The fact that he cannot keep his weight in check is also problematic.  The only coach that may be able to whip him into shape is Bill Parcells and well, he is not coaching anymore.  If he could just get his head on straight and be a pro, he might be something.

Mike Glennon – See QB description.  Bust

Braxton Cave C Notre Dame – I throw him in because there was some press about him being one of the top centers.  The guy looks weak to me and I think he will be eaten alive in the NFL.

Packers and Bears Draft Picks – The Packers and Bears are in a purgatory type area of this draft.  IT is really hard to say who will be there and who will not.  The bears could use help on the defensive line but there are so many talented players that most of them are going to be gone by the time they pick.  The same could be said with the Packers.  They could use a good LT but the top three may go in the top ten of this draft.  There will be some reaching in these picks but you are better off getting the guy that you want and not second best.  As always, I do not think that this is how either team will pick, this is just how I would pick if I was in their postions.

Packers Draft Picks:

I like a lot of guys that are falling a bit into that late first to third round area.  So that means that some of my picks will look like I am overdrafting and some may be long gone by the time I have the Packers picking them. 

1 (26) – Brian Schwenke C Cal  - Maybe this is a reach but I think that he is the best center to come out since Ryan Kalil.  I have always believed that Center is the single most underrated position in football.  It is true that you can find good guys later in the draft but I think that Schwenke is going to be a 10 year player.

2 (23) 55^th overall – Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan State –Love this kid and I don’t care if it is a reach, he reminds me of Steven Jackson in a lot of ways and I think he is a perfect fit for the Packers as their bellcow. 

3 (26) 88^th overall – This is going to be a tough area to project because there are varying opinions on each of these players

1.       Terron Armstrong LT Arkansas Pine-Bluff – Super athletic but has shown enough football skills to warrant being picked in this area or above

2.       Vance McDonald TE Rice – I have seen him projected anywhere from the 2^nd round to the 4^th round.  Again, he may be gone at this point so that would make this pick invalid

3.       Jesse Williams DL Alabama – Raw physical talent but he is an ox.  I see him in a similar role as Ryan Pickett where he can play both NT and DE in the 3-4.  Again, he may not be here. 

If any of these guys are not here, jump down to the guys I have in the 4^th round.  

4 (25) 122^nd overall – Trevardo Williams OLB Connecticut – Again, he is not a finished product but I was impressed by what I heard in his interview, just seems like a make it kinda guy.  He is one sided at this point but when your one side is pass rushing you have a lot of value.  He may also be gone at this point so here are some back-ups

1.       Earl Wolfe SS North Carolina State – He has the tools and he will give you all he has.  It sounds like he may have some coverage limitations but adjustments can be made to focus on his strengths within schemes.

2.       Reid Fragel OT Ohio State – I am not sure if he is a left tackle but he has length and athleticism.  I have seen him projected anywhere from 3^rd – 6^th round but I think his raw tools puts him closer to the 4^th round.  He could be something special or just another that falls by the wayside as a never quite made it.

5 (26) 159^th (34) 167^thoverall – The two previous players apply here if they are available.  Since they have two picks relatively close together I am going to just lump them together.

1.     Nick Kasa TE Colorado – Developmental TE prospect.  Seems to be solid all around

2.       Kyle Juszczyk FB/H-Back Harvard – I am not sure where he fits but he is a brute and worth a pick here.  Could fill the vacant role of Tom Crabtree but he is a little shorter and a bit more athletic

3.       Connor Vernon WR Duke – A solid and unspectacular WR who is deceptively quick and bigger than he measures

4.       David Bass OLB Missouri Western State – Raw pass rusher that could be something special

6 (26) 193^rd overall- Any previous guys that were still available and the following.

1.       Jordan Rodgers QB Vanderbilt – I think he is more than just the kid brotherof Aaron but again, he is not Aaron.  A solid back-up that you have faith in.

2.       Michael Hill RB Missouri Western State – It sounds like he is gaining enough momentum to project him at this spot

3.       Lawrence Okoye – Yeah, he is probably just a creation of the media but his raw tools make him a worthwhile pick.  Remember that Antonio Gates was a basketball player, why can’t a rugby player/discus thrower play?

7 (26)  232^nd overall- Dave Kruger DL Utah – Not to be confused with either of his brothers Joe (who is also coming out and a better OLB prospect) or Paul who just played in the superbowl.  Dave is not a top prospect and barely mentioned but I did get a chance to read about him a little bit and he seems like a solid if not unspectacular 3-4 DE prospect.  Just a rotation guy but sometimes those rotation guys end up making the other players better.

Bears draft picks:

The Bears need some quality offensive lineman and quality players in general.  The loss of Urlacher is being buffered by the signing of DJ Williams so that changes from an immediate need to a high priority.  Martellus Bennett is a stop gap regardless of what anybody says because he is a bit of an underachiever so TE could be addressed as well in the first.  Shea McClellan was a poor scheme fit and will most likely not be a solid 4-3 pass rusher so they may need to pick somebody else up early—the problem is that the best defensive lineman will probably be gone at this point.  They are in a tough spot in the first round since this year’s draft seems to be one of the most unpredictable in a long time. 

1 (20) – I have seen a lot of projections with any of the following picks being available.  If any one of these guys is available for them they should grab them in this order:

1.       Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State – There is an outside chance he will be available here.  He would be the best player available for an aging cornerback group.

2.       Bjoern Werner DE Florida State – I have seen him projected to fall this far and he would be worth it at this point.  Instantly upgrades a good pass rush by taking pressure off of Peppers.

3.       Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame – Notre Dame TE have reversed the stereotype recently and I think Eifert is going to be a better pro than Zach Ertz.  A good TE can make up for a poor offensive line.

4.       Manti Teo MLB Notre Dame – I know he was well publicized with his stupid catfish thing, so he is naïve.  He also did not do so swell in the national championship.  However, he is good enough and savvy enough to hold down the MLB spot for 10 years.  This would be a smart but not flashy pick. 

2 (18) 50th – David Queensberry OG-OT San Jose State – This is a reach for sure but it addresses a need on the offensive line and it is possible that Queensberry could play tackle in the pros which makes this a better pick.  Regardless, I think he will be a good pick here.

4 (20) 117 Jordan Mills RT Louisiana Tech – No third round pick will really hurt the Bears.  However, this puts them in a nice area to grab one of my favorite players.  Again, not a flashy pick but with the drafting of these two lineman it could solidify a not so good offensive line. 

A second option here is Zaviar Gooden OLB Missouri – He fits the role of a Tampa 2 outside linebacker who may not thump opposing players but he will tackle strong and will be excellent matching up against an athletic TE.  Both Gooden and Mills will most likely not be there in the fifth so they are perhaps reaches here but both a worthwhile.

A third option here is to grab Gerald Hodges LB Penn State – I think this guy is getting a little underrated and could man the middle for a long time. 

5 (20) 153 –  Jahleel Addae S Central Michigan – This guy is feisty and hits hard.  May not be dynamite in coverage but could be solid.  He seems like a cross between two former Bears, Mike Brown and Chris Harris.  He is faster than Harris but not as good of a player as Brown. 

6 (20) 188 – If the Bears miss out on Mills in this draft a nice pick-up may be Garrett Gilkey OG-OT out of Chadron State may be a diamond in the rough.  It is hard to project a guy up from a D2 school but he seems to have the raw skills and a pissed off mentality that leads to chip on his shoulder.  Local kid would fit in nice with the Bears at guard or possibly tackle.

If they miss out on the TE in the first round another option may be to take MarQuies Gray who was a college QB and WR that is being projected to TE in the NFL.  They will have to be patient with him but he could pay off down the road.

Another option would be P.J. Lonergan C LSU – He can only play center but he may be a very solid developmental prospect and the Bears are old at Center

So maybe I am wrong and maybe I am right.  Either way it is documented. 

Thanks random friends and family!