Lucky Seven Series Part 1 – Predicting the careers of the top seven running backs taken in 2013

(Please see the Lucky Seven Series explanation for more details on the analysis)

1 - Giovani Bernard – North Carolina

1^st picks: Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, Knowshon Moreno, Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, William Green, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis

Statistical Analysis:  Statistically speaking, the first player taken at the running back position has been better than any other spot.   The average total yards per season (rushing and receiving combined) is 1112.08 and the average total touchdowns (rushing and receiving combined) is 7.32, both are the top among any other draft position.  In looking at the consistency of the spot, the standard deviation for average total yards per season was second best among the sample.  However, it was the second worst within the sample for average total touchdowns per season.   Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 2^nd best player based on total yards in the sample in Adrian Peterson and the worst player in the sample was Mark Ingram at 55^th so a span of 53, which ranks as the best span.  Essentially, odds are that if you draft the first running back they will most likely turn out to be pretty good.

This is a group that has been pretty consistently good with six players averaging over 1000 total yards per season.  Steven Jackson is just under the average of 1500 yards per season mark at 1495 and Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson are over 1500 total yards per season.  The level of variance between players shown in the standard deviation would lead to believing that there is a very good chance that history supports success at this position.

There were no other running backs drafted out of North Carolina in the sample so there is no basis for success or failure based on school.

The Verdict:  History supports that Giovani Bernard should be successful.  However, he does not fall into a workhorse back category like many of the others drafted in this spot.  That can be good and bad, William Green and Mark Ingram were more workhorse back types and both were terrible pass catchers over their careers and they represent the worst running backs picked in this spot.  Based on the runners in this group it seems that there is a good chance he could have a similar career to Reggie Bush (984 average total yards a season with an average of 6.28 touchdowns a season).

2 – LeVeon Bell – Michigan State

2^nd picks: Doug Martin, Ryan Williams, Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Marshawn Lynch, Laurence Maroney, Cedric Benson, Chris Perry, Larry Johnson, T.J. Duckett, Deuce McAllister, Thomas Jones

Statistical Analysis: The second pick aligns with being the second best for average total yards per season and average total touchdowns per season.  Since Doug Martin is bloating these stats a bit, I eliminated his average to see if it would still be the second best and this spot still ranks 2^nd for total yards average and is 3^rd for total touchdown average.  The average total yards per season is 849.35 and the average total touchdowns is 5.31.  This means that there is a drastic drop-off between the quality of player that you get between the first and second player in the draft.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the best player based on total yards in the sample in Doug Martin and the 83^rd best player, and the worst player in this slot was Ryan Williams so a span of 82.

Another interesting thing to look at is that the worst average total yards for the first pick is 596.5.  Four players fall beneath that threshold for the second pick and only one player is above the 1500 total yard average mark (Doug Martin of course).  There are only two instances where a second pick has a better total yards a season average than the first pick: Ryan Mathews and Doug Martin.  Strangely enough, Ryan Matthews has a slightly lower average touchdown per season and Doug Martin’s is identical.

Only one player in this group was selected outside of round 1, Ryan Williams.  At that he was still selected ten slots ahead of where Le’Veon Bell was selected.  Williams is statistically the worst player selected at this spot in the 2000’s but he is still young so he may surpass the head scratching (even at the time) selection of Chris Perry in the first round. 

History is working against Bell when it comes to school attended.  Only one other player selected in the top seven running backs has come from Michigan State, T.J. Duckett.  55 colleges are represented within the sample and Michigan State ranks 44 among running backs in this sample for total yards average and 14th for touchdown average.  Duckett was also the second running back taken in his respective draft. 

The Verdict:  History does not exactly support Bell being a superstar nor does the college program he came from.  However, he is more of a workhorse back than Bernard so he may turn out better.  There is so much boom or bust in this group it is hard to predict.  More or less, this appears to be a safe spot to pick a player and most of the players that were supposed to be good turned out to be good.  That is to say, generally speaking Chris Perry and Ryan Williams were not considered to actually be the second best running backs in their respective draft, they were boneheaded picks.   Among the players picked in this spot he probably looks the most like Jonathon Stewart in that he is a big back that may be in a running back by committee situation in Pittsburg.  Personally, I really like him a lot and I have said so in the past but history does not support that he will be anything better than a good back.

3 - Montee Ball - Wisconsin

  

3^rd picks: David Wilson, Shane Vereen, Jahvid Best, Beanie Wells, Felix Jones, Kenny Irons, DeAngelo Williams, Cadillac Williams, Kevin Jones, Musa Smith, DeShaun Foster, Michael Bennett, Ron Dayne

Statistical Analysis: This is where things start to get really interesting.  The third running back taken has not turned out nearly as well as other spots.  One exception has been made to this group, David Irons was not added to the statistics because he never played in an NFL game.  So he is listed but I did not factor him into the sample.  The average total yards per season was 627.18 and the average total touchdowns was 3.84.  In both cases this was a major drop off compared to some of the other groups.  This slot ranks as 5^th in both average total yards a season and average total touchdowns a season.  Interestingly enough, this group had the smallest standard deviation in both categories.  This reveals that historically speaking, teams should know what they are getting with the third running back taken; average at best.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 22^nd (The worst ranking of any 1 group’s top player)best player based on total yards in the sample in DeAngelo Williams and the 84^th best player in the sample in Musa Smith so a span of 62.  This demonstrates the consistent mediocrity at best history of this slot.

One really interesting thing about this group is that statistically speaking the second and third best players were both drafted by the Lions; Jahvid Best and Kevin Jones.  This also tells us how bad this group really is.  DeAngelo Williams is the only player with a 1000+ Total yard average in the entire group.  The only player in this group that really sticks out as being particularly bad is Musa Smith, although he was the lowest draft pick of the group.  David Irons cannot be blamed for having a career ending injury, but I remember at the time thinking it was a bit of a reach. 

One of the most interesting things to point out about this position is that Ball is the third Wisconsin running back to be the third running back selected.  That works against Ball as Wisconsin running backs rank 46^th in average rushing yards per season and 43^rd in average touchdowns per season within the sample.  Maybe three times is a charm for Wisconsin running backs but Ball seems to have two things working against him.

The Verdict:  History has shown that very mediocre at best running backs have been taken at this slot.  To compound on this, Wisconsin running backs in the sample have been particularly weak.  While this isn’t the worst slot based on averages per season it hosts the worst top player in DeAngelo Williams by over 300 yards average.  That is quite a margin.  Sorry Montee but history is working against you on this one, he looks like he will be a bust based on history.

4 – Eddie Lacy – Alabama

4^th Picks: Isaiah Pead, Mikel Leshoure, Dexter McCluster                  , LeSean McCoy, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Henry, Joseph Addai, J.J. Arrington, Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Clinton Portis, Anthony Thomas, Shaun Alexander

Statistical Analysis:  So we have arrived at the spot that inspired me to do this analysis.  The average total yards per season was 742.46 and the average total touchdowns was 5.11—a marked improvement over the previous position with a ranking of 4^th for average total yards and third for average total touchdowns.  The standard deviation for total yards was 418.07 and total touchdowns was 3.93 which ranks as fourth and seventh respectively.  This represents some interesting inconsistencies between players.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 12^th best player based on total yards in the sample in LeSean McCoy and the second worst player (89^th) in the sample in Chris Henry so a span of 77.  Strangely enough, Henry was picked with the 50^th pick and McCoy with the 53^rd pick in their respective drafts.    Four players in this group have an average of over 1000 total yards per season with nobody making it to the 1500 mark.

This is an interesting group of running backs as you have a lot of smaller guys and role players but also some workhorse backs.  The oddball pick, even at the time, was J.J. Arrington as he was considered to be more of a kick returner than anything else and just a few years later the Cardinals picked a similar player in LaRod Stephens-Howling in the 7^th round instead of the 2^nd round and their production for the Cardinals was similar except LSH was a better kick returner.  You also get players like Tatum Bell who was just a flash in the pan and may have had one of the strangest incidents in recent memory when he stole Rudi Johnson’s luggage.    

Alabama running backs have been a real mixed bag in the NFL.  Trent Richardson looks to be a solid player and Shaun Alexander was very good for a long time.  However, Mark Ingram has been average and Glenn Coffee flipped out and retired after one year, though he looked promising his rookie year.    Alabama ranks as the 22nd best school based on total yards and 7^th for total touchdowns.  

The Verdict:  History supports that this is a boom or bust pick in both the players chosen in this slot as well as the players drafted from Alabama.  With that said, the only truly poor pick from Alabama was Glenn Coffee with Ingram being at least average.  As much as I would love to say that Lacy will be dynamite, history would dictate that he has a 50/50 shot at being good.

5 – Christine Michael – Texas A & M

5^th picks: LaMichael James, Daniel Thomas, Toby Gerhart, Shonn Greene, Chris Johnson, Brian Leonard, LenDale White, Eric Shelton, Julius Jones, Justin Fargas, Maurice Morris, LaMont Jordan, Trung Canidate

Statistical Analysis:  The average total yards per season was 587.28 and the average total touchdowns was 2.84.  In both cases this is a significantly poor slot for running backs as that ranks 6^th and 7^th respectively.  The standard deviation for total yards was 410.61 and total touchdowns was 2.59 which ranks as third and second respectively.  Essentially, the odds are that if you take a running back in this slot, he will not be good.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 3^rd best player based on total yards in the sample in Chris Johnson and the worst player (90^th) in the sample in Eric Shelton so a span of 87, the worst span of any group.  Interestingly enough both Chris Johnson and Trung Canidate were both still first round picks—compared to this past draft where the Michael was the last pick of the second round.    One player in this group has an average of over 1000 total yards per season and is above the 1500 mark, Chris Johnson of course. 

This is an interesting spot for me because there are so many players I had strong feelings about when they were coming out of college.  Interestingly enough Christine Michael is coming into a situation where there is a very good established running back or two (Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin).  Many of the running backs picked in this slot were in the same situation: LaMichael James (Frank Gore), Toby Gerhart (Adrian Peterson), Brian Leonard (Steven Jackson), Justin Fargas (A stable of running backs including Charlie Garner and Tyrone Wheatly), Maurice Morris (Shaun Alexander), and Trung Canidate (Marshall Faulk).  In most of these cases, these were running backs that were mid-career so the drafting of these players meant that they were going to be role players more than anything else.

Texas A&M has only had one other player in the top seven in the 2000s, Mike Goodson.  Goodson is a different type of running back, more of a speed back.  However, there are some interesting similarities in that both will be considered role players.  Goodson also had a similar experience in falling out of favor while at A&M just as Michael has.  Texas A&M ranks as 48 for total yards and 49 for total touchdowns. 

The Verdict: There is a lot working against Michael in this slot as there are some terrible inconsistencies with players and some very bad players that were overdrafted.  However, based on the needs of the Seahawks, they are probably just looking for a role player and history supports this being a spot for role players.  If the Seahawks are looking for a replacement for Lynch, this spot would dictate that Michael will be a failure.

6 – Knile Davis - Arkansas

6^th picks:  Ronnie Hillman, Demarco Murray, Ben Tate, Glen Coffee, Matt Forte, Brandon Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Mewelde Moore, Artose Pinner, Ladell Betts, Travis Henry, Travis Prentice

Statistical Analysis: The average total yards per season was 752.85 and the average total touchdowns was 3.87.  In both cases this is a very good slot for running backs as that ranks 3rd and 4^th respectively.  The standard deviation for total yards was 448.44 and total touchdowns was 2.95 which ranks as third and second respectively.  The consistency tells us that odds are you will get one of the top producing running backs in the draft, though there is some bust factor involved.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 6^th best player based on total yards in the sample and the lowest ranking was Artose Pinner at 82 so a span of 76 so slightly better than the 4^th running back taken.  An interesting thing to note on this group is that if we look at players that have a combined number of 1400 yards average, this group has the second most (to the first players picked) with three.

There have been two Arkansas running backs to be in the top 7 since 2000 and they played together—Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.  While neither has set the league on fire, McFadden has been dynamic when healthy and Jones has been decent, though neither has lived up to their high draft status.  With that said, Arkansas ranks as the 20^th for average combined yards in the sample 28^th average touchdowns (out of 55).  Things do not look terrible with Davis for this spot based on the history of the school. 

This group sports three backs that have been consistent solid contributors to their teams.  Demarco Murray may eventually be added to that group if he stays healthy.  It is hard to factor in a player like Coffee, who showed potential but just gave up (or had his calling if you wish to believe that).  But for the most part everybody in this group had some form of solid contribution at some point in their careers even if they were short careers. 

The Verdict: History would support that Davis turns out to be at least decent.  He is coming into a situation where he will be given a very good shot to be a contributor and, given Jamaal Charles’ injury history, may have a shot to start some games this year.  Given that this is a pretty consistent slot, Davis appears to be more boom than bust and his school history supports that.

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7 – Jonathan Franklin – UCLA

7^th picks: Johnathan Franklin, Bernard Pierce, Stevan Ridley, Montario Hardesty, Mike Goodson, Ray Rice, Lorenzo Booker, Brian Calhoun, Vernand Morency, Michael Turner, Domanick Davis, Lamar Gordon, James Jackson, J.R. Redmond

Statistical Analysis: The average total yards per season was 574.29 and the average total touchdowns was 2.89.  This ranks as 7^th and 6^th respectively.  The standard deviation for total yards was 488.29 and total touchdowns was 3.33 which ranks as 7^th and 5^th respectively.  The inconsistency among running backs shows that this is a boom or bust slot.  Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 5^th best player based on total yards in the sample and the lowest ranking was Brian Calhoun at 88 so a span of 83, the second worst among the sample.  This group has one player who is above 1500 total yards a season on average in Ray Rice with Dominick Davis just a hair behind at 1490.  These lead us to see that there is a large amount of boom or bust factor with this group, leaning more towards the bust factor.

When you get this far into the draft, there will be more role players by nature.  However, this is still a group of players that have had a solid shot at playing and most have not turned out to be successful.  It is also interesting to look at a player like Michael Turner who was behind Tomlinson for a number of years so his stats are a little misleading.  Looking back though, there is no reason that Ray Rice should have been the seventh running back taken given his college career.  You also have the enigma that is Domanick Davis’ career.  This is a strange group to say the least.

There were two instances of players coming out of UCLA, DeShaun Foster and Maurice Jones-Drew.  So history would support that this is again a boom or semi-bust type of situation.  DeShaun Foster’s biggest issue was his attitude and ego.  What makes Jones-Drew the way he is, is his chip on his shoulder attitude.  Franklin is more Jones-Drew than Foster.

The Verdict:  It is interesting to see players as good as Ray Rice in this slot and the support of very good players (Foster had talent he was just an egomaniac) from the same school as Franklin.  However, this slot marks the biggest group of boom or bust players and there is a lack of consistency.  This leads me to believe that Franklin is truly a 50/50 shot but unlike most players in this slot, he will have a better opportunity than most to play right away.  Just because I like my Packers and I love the pick, he is different than Foster and I could imagine his career being right in-between the two from UCLA.

So there you have it.  There are a significant number of interesting things you can see from these statistics and I will continue on with perhaps a few other postings on Lucky Seven and these stats.

Thank you everybody for reading!  If you are interested in the spreadsheet feel free to send me an email, AndreMarshallSmith@gmail.com

Lucky Seven Series

Lucky Seven Series Explanation

In preparation for the NFL season, the unfortunate retirement of Jahvid Best, a strange conversation on NFL radio a few months back on if Curtis Martin was better than LaDainian Tomlinson, and the Packers two running backs they just drafted I started to think about running backs.  So I started to look back at the history of running backs in the 2000s.  This led me to an over extensive analysis of the top seven (lucky 7 or that the Packers took Jonathan Franklin at 7?) running backs taken in the draft since 2000.  Before the analysis I wondered if there were patterns in where running backs were picked.  So I decided to try and predict the futures of the seven running backs taken in this year’s draft based on historical statistics.  Nerdy huh?  In any case, I spent a great deal more time on all of this and discovered a lot of really strange and interesting information. 

So the system I used was looking at a players average yards rushing, average rushing touchdowns, average receiving yards, and average receiving touchdowns per season for their careers up until either retirement or the 2012 season.  From there I looked at the combined number of rushing and receiving yards and the combined number of rushing and receiving Touchdowns.  Obviously, the newer players skewered some of the data a bit, particularly Doug Martin.  There is so much information that I looked at and plotted in my spreadsheet that I decided I would do a series of lucky 7 blogs (hopefully) looking at different things.  90 running backs were analyzed (David Irons was excluded from most of the analysis done).

There were a few exceptions that I made. 

-        If a player primarily played fullback in the NFL I did not include them in the analysis. 

o   This means that B.J. Askew, Greg Jones, and Cedric Cobbs were excluded

o   J.R. Redmond was included in the sample because he played both HB and FB

-        If a player missed the entire season without stepping on the field that season was excluded from the statistics

o   This eliminated one season for Willis McGahee, one season for Jamal Lewis, and one season for Mikel LeShoure

-        David Irons was included in the list but he never had an NFL statistic due to injury.  Therefore, his stats were removed from all of the analysis except the analysis on Auburn players in the sample.

NFL Draft 2013

So here is my annual NFL Draft Blog.  Sorry I am packing everything in one posting.  I will update if somebody else sticks out in the next couple of weeks.  After the draft I will be analyzing everything as well.

Without further ado:

Guys that I really like in this Draft/intriguing guys:

Eric Fisher LT Central Michigan – I think both him and Joekel will be good but I think Fisher is just a meaner player.  He is getting a lot of comparisons to Joe Staley because he has a similar physical make-up and is from the same school but I think he is a different player, probably a bit more of a mauler type.

Lane Johnson LT Oklahoma – There is something very intriguing about a left tackle that used to play quarterback.  I don’t think he is quite ready yet but I am intrigued

Kyle Long LT Oregon – A total boom or bust type player.  He has overcome a lot of stupid decisions and a part of me really believes that he is going to put it all together.  One odd thing is that he seems to have a strange attitude about being a Long (Howie Long is his Dad) and almost seems to want to disassociate based on an interview I heard.  This makes me think he is perhaps a little bit too much of a loner.

Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan State– I really like this guy a lot.  I have been burned in the past with MSU running backs and players but I really see a lot of Steven Jackson in him, though he is not quite as hard-nosed.  One of my favorite players in the draft.

Jordan Mills RT Lousiana Tech – I heard an interview with this guy at the Senior Bowl (he was a late addition) and I was intrigued with him.  After checking him out I really started to like him.  He is not going to be a left tackle in the NFL but I think he could be a very good to great RT.  He just has that tough mad at the world chip on the shoulder attitude.

Brian Schwenke C Cal – He may be my favorite player in this draft because he just plays.  He plays smart, with strength, and is a line leader.  You want your center to play with attitude while keeping their head on straight and I think Schwenke does just that.

The Missouri Western Boys – Two guys I am very intrigued with from the same small school:

David Bass OLB/DE looks to have some solid raw talent and pass rushing ability but he is very raw.

Michael Hill RB – Humble attitude with confidence.  6-0  210 pounds so he has decent size and looks to have some solid quickness.  He does not have quite the shakes of an NFL runner and looks perhaps a little straight linish but he lit it up when given the chance so he is worth a late round pick.

Trevardo Williams OLB Connecticut – I heard an interview with this kid and read up a bit about him.  Right now it seems like he is primarily a pass rusher and needs work on the other parts and he is a bit small for playing DE and a 3-4 OLB.  However, so were Elvis Dumerville and Jason Taylor and I think he has a shot at being just one level below both of them.

Conner Vernon WR Duke – When I watched him play, he just made plays.  He looks faster than he times and looks like he finds ways to get open and find soft spots.  I say this almost every year but he has some Ricky Proehl to him.

Ziggy Ansah DE/OLB (3-4) BYU – I really do not buy into raw physical guys all that much.  His path has been strikingly similar to Jason Pierre Paul but he is even less experienced.  With that in mind, when I saw him play at the Senior Bowl, I saw a very instinctual and aware player who also was pretty darn good at stopping the run.  If he is this raw he may have a bright future.  If the Packers traded up to get him I would not be upset.

Zavier Gooden OLB Missouri – Again, this is a guy that really stood out to me at the Senior Bowl.  He is a little light and is not a blow you up linebacker yet.  However, he has some great instincts and always seems to be around the play.  He was a safety and still retains some of that speed.  He is not for everybody but I think he has a similar make-up to Derrick Brooks when he came out of college but a step below.

Kerwynn Williams RB Utah State – This was a guy that stood out to me at the East-West Shrine Game.  He is a runner and needs to work on all of the other things like pass protection that running backs need to do in the NFL.  But as a runner, I think he has some special skills.  Not your bellcow but a very good rotation guy.

Dennard Robinson Michigan – What the heck do you do with this guy?  He is a great athlete but he showed not so great hands at the Senior Bowl, though he looked better catching at the combine.  His best position may be a situation RB and QB on trick plays.  He is most likely going to be overdrafted but could be an interesting pick-up after round 4 if he lasts.

Now For QB’s – Given that it is the most important position I want to outline my thoughts on some of the top prospects.  When I watched the Senior Bowl I saw a lot of inaccuracy with the quarterbacks and nobody really thrilled me except EJ Manuel. 

I think there are two guys that could start in this league eventually

Geno Smith – He seems to have all of the tools, accuracy, etc but for some reason people are talking him down.  There has also been some talk of his lack of football intelligence and that he came off as a little cocky in NFL interviews.  Every interview I heard with him does not support this but if I knew what to look for I would not be blogging this.  I think he may need some time in the league to develop on probably a similar schedule to Steve McNair.  But one of the key things I liked about him is that in an interview he was set up to say “most definitely” but instead chose “certainly”.  A patient team will be happy with him.

E.J. Manuel – I really like this guy.  I think he is a winner above all else and he is a pretty darn good athlete on top of that.  When I saw him play, he just brought a presence to the field and found ways to win.  He needs some time to develop though—at least two years.  However, I think he may be able to come off the bench during that time period and rally a team to win a game or two.

Matt Barkley – What to do with this guy?  A year ago he seemed like a legit quarterback but some of his downfalls surfaced.  Part of me thinks he is a Brian Brohm clone.  I think he may be a step above that but he is not going to be a top quarterback in this league.  I am thinking like Ty Detmer kind of career.

Mike Glennon – This guy is getting a lot of press and I do not really understand it.  Okay, he has a big arm and he is tall but he is really inaccurate.  I think he has bust written all over him.

Tyler Bray – Falls into the same category as Glennon but I think he has better raw tools.  He seems like a guy that just has not put it all together yet and he should have.

Ryan Nassib – I see him as more of a system type quarterback.  He reminds me a little bit of Kellen Clemons in that he theoretically should be good but something is just missing when he is out there.  He has a shot at developing and starting one day but I think he is a few years away at best.

Zac Dysert – Again, he is somebody that really looked bad when I watched him at the Senior Bowl and looked wildly inaccurate.  He reminds me of Charlie Frye a little bit.  He will not make it in the NFL.

Tyler Wilson and Landry Jones both seem to be really strong characters that can play decent for an NFL team.  I think they can both win some games for a team but they seem like the type of guys that somebody will always be looking to replace.  Very similar to Kyle Orton’s career.

I have to throw in my Boy’s little Brother-Jordan Rodgers – I actually think that Jordan is being underrated because he is not his brother and well, he is not his brother.  That does not mean he cannot play.  He is not ready yet but I think he has some potential.  He reminds me a little bit of Matt Hasselbeck when he came out of BC.  I want him on the Packers so he can go to QB school next year and I think he can develop into a decent overall player.

Busts

D.J. Fluker OT Alabama - has bust written all over him in my mind.  He is big and strong but he seems oafy out there when I have seen him.  There seems to be a guy like him every year and these guys all end up being mild to major busts. 

Anybody from Clemson – I know I said it last year but it is seriously funny to me.

Marcus Lattimore  South Carolina- It pains me to write this and it may seem like an odd one but it is so dangerous to put faith in a running back who has torn his ACL.  Both Frank Gore and Willis McGahee managed to recover and put together good (McGahee) and excellent (Gore) NFL careers.  But I think somebody may gamble too early (anything above the 4^th round) and lose on him.

Alec Ogletree LB Georgia – It is a shame that such a talented guy cannot stay out of trouble.  When the spot light is on you and you cannot avoid drinking and driving, you are not very smart.  He will continue to get into trouble in the NFL and ruin a very promising career.  The other thing that one has to wonder is if he was just surrounded by very good talent.  He had a monster of a man in front of him and excellent guys outside of him.  Wasted talent.

Tavon Austin WR West Virginia – I don’t think he is going to be a full on bust but if he goes in the first round, teams are reaching.  That is not to say that he is not a very good player but the impact of guys like him seem limited.  Look at Dexter McCluster who has a very similar build and type of player.  Yeah, you like him but how much impact does he really have? 

Jonathon Cooper G N.C. – I looked at this guy and read a bit about him and it sounds like a lot of Jeckyl and Hyde with him.  Sometimes it seems like he is amazing and other times it seems like he is giving up.  An offensive lineman who is known to let pain bother him is in the wrong business.  I think he is not going to make it in the NFL.

Kawann Short DT Purdue – Maybe I am just soured on Purdue Lineman but he also seems to be a bit of a lazy, rely too much on natural talent kind of guy.  The fact that he cannot keep his weight in check is also problematic.  The only coach that may be able to whip him into shape is Bill Parcells and well, he is not coaching anymore.  If he could just get his head on straight and be a pro, he might be something.

Mike Glennon – See QB description.  Bust

Braxton Cave C Notre Dame – I throw him in because there was some press about him being one of the top centers.  The guy looks weak to me and I think he will be eaten alive in the NFL.

Packers and Bears Draft Picks – The Packers and Bears are in a purgatory type area of this draft.  IT is really hard to say who will be there and who will not.  The bears could use help on the defensive line but there are so many talented players that most of them are going to be gone by the time they pick.  The same could be said with the Packers.  They could use a good LT but the top three may go in the top ten of this draft.  There will be some reaching in these picks but you are better off getting the guy that you want and not second best.  As always, I do not think that this is how either team will pick, this is just how I would pick if I was in their postions.

Packers Draft Picks:

I like a lot of guys that are falling a bit into that late first to third round area.  So that means that some of my picks will look like I am overdrafting and some may be long gone by the time I have the Packers picking them. 

1 (26) – Brian Schwenke C Cal  - Maybe this is a reach but I think that he is the best center to come out since Ryan Kalil.  I have always believed that Center is the single most underrated position in football.  It is true that you can find good guys later in the draft but I think that Schwenke is going to be a 10 year player.

2 (23) 55^th overall – Le’Veon Bell RB Michigan State –Love this kid and I don’t care if it is a reach, he reminds me of Steven Jackson in a lot of ways and I think he is a perfect fit for the Packers as their bellcow. 

3 (26) 88^th overall – This is going to be a tough area to project because there are varying opinions on each of these players

1.       Terron Armstrong LT Arkansas Pine-Bluff – Super athletic but has shown enough football skills to warrant being picked in this area or above

2.       Vance McDonald TE Rice – I have seen him projected anywhere from the 2^nd round to the 4^th round.  Again, he may be gone at this point so that would make this pick invalid

3.       Jesse Williams DL Alabama – Raw physical talent but he is an ox.  I see him in a similar role as Ryan Pickett where he can play both NT and DE in the 3-4.  Again, he may not be here. 

If any of these guys are not here, jump down to the guys I have in the 4^th round.  

4 (25) 122^nd overall – Trevardo Williams OLB Connecticut – Again, he is not a finished product but I was impressed by what I heard in his interview, just seems like a make it kinda guy.  He is one sided at this point but when your one side is pass rushing you have a lot of value.  He may also be gone at this point so here are some back-ups

1.       Earl Wolfe SS North Carolina State – He has the tools and he will give you all he has.  It sounds like he may have some coverage limitations but adjustments can be made to focus on his strengths within schemes.

2.       Reid Fragel OT Ohio State – I am not sure if he is a left tackle but he has length and athleticism.  I have seen him projected anywhere from 3^rd – 6^th round but I think his raw tools puts him closer to the 4^th round.  He could be something special or just another that falls by the wayside as a never quite made it.

5 (26) 159^th (34) 167^thoverall – The two previous players apply here if they are available.  Since they have two picks relatively close together I am going to just lump them together.

1.     Nick Kasa TE Colorado – Developmental TE prospect.  Seems to be solid all around

2.       Kyle Juszczyk FB/H-Back Harvard – I am not sure where he fits but he is a brute and worth a pick here.  Could fill the vacant role of Tom Crabtree but he is a little shorter and a bit more athletic

3.       Connor Vernon WR Duke – A solid and unspectacular WR who is deceptively quick and bigger than he measures

4.       David Bass OLB Missouri Western State – Raw pass rusher that could be something special

6 (26) 193^rd overall- Any previous guys that were still available and the following.

1.       Jordan Rodgers QB Vanderbilt – I think he is more than just the kid brotherof Aaron but again, he is not Aaron.  A solid back-up that you have faith in.

2.       Michael Hill RB Missouri Western State – It sounds like he is gaining enough momentum to project him at this spot

3.       Lawrence Okoye – Yeah, he is probably just a creation of the media but his raw tools make him a worthwhile pick.  Remember that Antonio Gates was a basketball player, why can’t a rugby player/discus thrower play?

7 (26)  232^nd overall- Dave Kruger DL Utah – Not to be confused with either of his brothers Joe (who is also coming out and a better OLB prospect) or Paul who just played in the superbowl.  Dave is not a top prospect and barely mentioned but I did get a chance to read about him a little bit and he seems like a solid if not unspectacular 3-4 DE prospect.  Just a rotation guy but sometimes those rotation guys end up making the other players better.

Bears draft picks:

The Bears need some quality offensive lineman and quality players in general.  The loss of Urlacher is being buffered by the signing of DJ Williams so that changes from an immediate need to a high priority.  Martellus Bennett is a stop gap regardless of what anybody says because he is a bit of an underachiever so TE could be addressed as well in the first.  Shea McClellan was a poor scheme fit and will most likely not be a solid 4-3 pass rusher so they may need to pick somebody else up early—the problem is that the best defensive lineman will probably be gone at this point.  They are in a tough spot in the first round since this year’s draft seems to be one of the most unpredictable in a long time. 

1 (20) – I have seen a lot of projections with any of the following picks being available.  If any one of these guys is available for them they should grab them in this order:

1.       Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State – There is an outside chance he will be available here.  He would be the best player available for an aging cornerback group.

2.       Bjoern Werner DE Florida State – I have seen him projected to fall this far and he would be worth it at this point.  Instantly upgrades a good pass rush by taking pressure off of Peppers.

3.       Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame – Notre Dame TE have reversed the stereotype recently and I think Eifert is going to be a better pro than Zach Ertz.  A good TE can make up for a poor offensive line.

4.       Manti Teo MLB Notre Dame – I know he was well publicized with his stupid catfish thing, so he is naïve.  He also did not do so swell in the national championship.  However, he is good enough and savvy enough to hold down the MLB spot for 10 years.  This would be a smart but not flashy pick. 

2 (18) 50th – David Queensberry OG-OT San Jose State – This is a reach for sure but it addresses a need on the offensive line and it is possible that Queensberry could play tackle in the pros which makes this a better pick.  Regardless, I think he will be a good pick here.

4 (20) 117 Jordan Mills RT Louisiana Tech – No third round pick will really hurt the Bears.  However, this puts them in a nice area to grab one of my favorite players.  Again, not a flashy pick but with the drafting of these two lineman it could solidify a not so good offensive line. 

A second option here is Zaviar Gooden OLB Missouri – He fits the role of a Tampa 2 outside linebacker who may not thump opposing players but he will tackle strong and will be excellent matching up against an athletic TE.  Both Gooden and Mills will most likely not be there in the fifth so they are perhaps reaches here but both a worthwhile.

A third option here is to grab Gerald Hodges LB Penn State – I think this guy is getting a little underrated and could man the middle for a long time. 

5 (20) 153 –  Jahleel Addae S Central Michigan – This guy is feisty and hits hard.  May not be dynamite in coverage but could be solid.  He seems like a cross between two former Bears, Mike Brown and Chris Harris.  He is faster than Harris but not as good of a player as Brown. 

6 (20) 188 – If the Bears miss out on Mills in this draft a nice pick-up may be Garrett Gilkey OG-OT out of Chadron State may be a diamond in the rough.  It is hard to project a guy up from a D2 school but he seems to have the raw skills and a pissed off mentality that leads to chip on his shoulder.  Local kid would fit in nice with the Bears at guard or possibly tackle.

If they miss out on the TE in the first round another option may be to take MarQuies Gray who was a college QB and WR that is being projected to TE in the NFL.  They will have to be patient with him but he could pay off down the road.

Another option would be P.J. Lonergan C LSU – He can only play center but he may be a very solid developmental prospect and the Bears are old at Center

So maybe I am wrong and maybe I am right.  Either way it is documented. 

Thanks random friends and family!

NFL Draft 2012

The NFL draft is almost upon us and I have my personal insights along with what I think the Packers and Bears should do in the draft. It is impossible to truly project where players are going in the draft so most of this is based off of what Pro Football Weekly projects along with a few other sources to give me a rough range of where players will go.
This may be the first year ever that I really like the top three QB’s – Luck, RG III, and Tannehill. With that said, I look at Tannehill as a guy that should not start right away. Between Luck and RG III I think the better QB is going to be the one that goes to Washington. So in other words I really love both. The only scenario where I see Tannehill starting any games this season is if he goes to the Dolphins. Even at that I don’t think he should. He needs to sit for a year or we will see a repeat of Gabbert (who I think is still a good QB in the long run). From there I am not sold on anybody else, though I like the potential of Osweiler because he has the right attitude.
First and foremost among the many Andre rules of thumb we need to invoke rule number 1 never draft anybody out of Clemson, especially in the first round. Also, if a player is known to not have their heart in football, skip over them.
Guys that are getting overrated
- Kirk Cousins QB – I am not sold on him because he makes bad decisions based on lack of arm strength. I think he is a solid back-up at best.
- Ryan Tannehill – Again, I like him and the potential is certainly there but he fits more as a high 2nd rounder in my eyes
- Justin Blackmon – I really do not see him as an elite receiver and there is so much depth at WR this year that I do not think he warrants a top 10 pick.
- Dontario Poe – I have a feeling that he will not go as high as people are projecting right now. If he falls down to the second round for some reason he is worth it there but from what I have seen on his game film (Not a ton but his highlights) he is too far from where he needs to be to be a first round pick.
Guys that should not be touched
- Quinton Couples – Freakish athlete but I heard an interview with him and he just did not seem like he understood different defenses very well. We see guys like this every year.
- Nick Perry – When people question your passion for the game and work ethic you should do everything you can to prove them wrong. I just do not think it is a good idea to invest a high pick on somebody who does not have passion for the game.
- Vontaze Burfict LB – The LB version of Taylor Mays but less talented and a whole lot crazier.
- David Wilson RB – I just do not see a solid NFL running back in him. Something is missing.
- Trumaine Johnson CB – His attitude and lack of effort makes me think he is going to burn somebody bad.
- Adrian Hamilton OLB – DE – I know this is an oddball one because he may not even get drafted but I could also see somebody falling in love with his insane sack production last year and taking him in the 3rd round. I bring him up because I looked at some highlights of him and there is no way that he is ever going to be able to get away with those moves in the NFL or for even a D-I college program.

Safest players in the draft
1. Luke Kuechly LB – I think that he is the surest player in this draft. A LB does not have close to the impact that a QB would but Kuechly will be very good for a long time.
2. Trent Richardson RB – Richardson is not a stud in my mind but I think that he will be a very good running back that can be a bell cow for 10 years. Keep in mind that most running backs do not last more than 3-5 years usually
3. Andrew Luck and RG III –No comment really needed I think these two will be very good for a long time.
4. Morris Claiborne – Not as flashy as many top CB in drafts past but he is a woodtick type of CB that will play a long time. The best comparison would be an Aeneas Williams type of career.
5. Peter Konz C – Smart and physically gifted with a mean streak which is exactly what you want in a Center. I have always been of the belief that the Center position is the most important on the offensive line.
My favorite players outside of the top tier players
- Ron Brooks CB LSU – A lot of balls were funneled his way and he held up.
- Miles Burris LB San Diego State – There is something about this kid that just makes me think he is going to be very good for somebody.
- Derek Wolfe DT-DE – He really stuck out to me when I watched the senior bowl and I think he is a bit under the radar (Like I talk to NFL teams or anything?)
- Marvin McNutt WR – Gene hyped him up to me. I looked over him and I saw a guy that is savvy and a good athlete. I am not convinced that he will ever be a #1 but he could compliment another receiver quite well. His understanding of offenses, being a former QB, along with his team first attitude makes me think he has it in him to carve out a Hines Ward type career.
Intriguing players
- Bruce Irvin DE – OLB – This kid has gone through a ton in his life and I really liked him but he just got into trouble again.
- Markus Zusevics – He is not going to be a starter in the NFL but he may be a very valuable swing man for a team and a reliable swing man on the OL is worthy of a later pick
- Mike Daniels – Quick but very undersized DT who a creative Defensive Coach could find a role for.
- Asa “Ace” Jackson CB Cal Poly – He is a bit raw and will need at least a year to make the jump but I like his tools and feisty attitude.


Bears: OL, LB, DB, DL
1 (19): Peter Konz C Wisconsin – The Bears offensive line has been broken into pieces these last 3-4 seasons. They have brought in some questionable offensive lineman that are either too nice or not physically there. When you have a power running system you need lineman that hate the world and Konz is not quite there but he is tough. They need somebody who can bring some much needed leadership and smarts. Konz fits that bill and will make them a better team.

2 (50): Marvin McNutt WR Iowa – Ideally the Bears could trade down a little bit here and get McNutt. Some would also say that this is a little high for him and that he is not field fast. The more I look at at McNutt the more I think he is going to be very good. He is a good size WR with good athletic ability and he has an understanding of offenses as a whole in that he was a QB. I don’t think he is going to ever be a primary receiver but that is why they traded for Marshall. He reminds me of a less savvy Hines Ward but he will give it his all. Now they can put both Knox (if he recovers) and Hester in the slot where they can be more effective.

3 (79): James-Michael Johnson LB Nevada –This guy is mentally tough and seems to have a solid understanding of defenses. He is physically gifted as well. He looks like he can play inside or outside but seems to be a better fit inside. The Bears have been ignoring their aging linebacker core for a bit too long and this guy would ease the loss of Urlacher in a few years.

4 (111): Ace Jackson CB Cal Poly – Jackson may not be here but if he is the Bears should take him. He has a similar attitude to Peanut Tillman with a very different physique. I do not think he can start right away but could serve as a very good Nickel back in his first year

5 (150): Akiem Hicks DT Regina – This guy is very raw. Some might knock him down for the mistakes he made as a JUCO transfer but he has been fine since then so it is not worth downgrading him. He is very big but a bit underdeveloped so he will not do much his first year but should develop over time. He is more valuable to a team like the Bears who have a really good D-line coach (But clearly the worst head coach in NFL history).

6 (184): Kelcie McCray S Arkansas State – An underrated value here, he is better than what they have and if a 6th round pick can start for your team that is a good value. The Bears have had a rotating door of Safeties for a few years now because everybody is a bit blue collar that they bring in. While McCrary is similar I think he has more staying power than the last two.

7 (220): Derek Dennis OG Temple –The Bears need to bring in more bodies along the offensive line and Dennis has some intriguing skills and a mean attitude. He is not dynamite but neither is anybody on the interior of the Bears OL.

Packers

1 (28): Shea McClellin OLB Boise State – The Packers missed out on Brooks Reed last year and he would have significantly helped their last place defense. McClellin is in the same vein and in a similar situation as Brooks Reed (moving up draft boards due to consistency and hard work) and may not be around with their second pick. You pick the player you want if you think he will be gone with the next pick!

2 (59): Ben Jones C Georgia – Ideally the Packers trade down from here but any trade needs a taker so it is never good to try and project that. I love Jeff Saturday but he is only going to play for a season or two and the Packers need to look at this position even if it is a little higher than he is projected (again and this will not be the last)

3 (90): Derek Wolfe DT-DE Cincinnati – Granted it is just one game and I have been fooled before but of all the players in the Senior Bowl, Wolfe really stuck out the most to me. He is somewhat of a late riser but when you really look at him there is a lot to like. He reminds me a bit of Aaron Smith but maybe not quiet that high of a ceiling. I really like this kid a lot and he serves a definite need.

4 (123): Ron Brooks CB LSU – While Morris Claiborne is clearly a better prospect than Brooks that just means that Brooks was challenged more in college. He has a solid skill set, the right attitude, and determination. I think he is getting a little underrated

4 (132): Miles Burris LB San Diego State – It is hard to project where this guy is going to play as some have him at 3-4 OLB and some think he is more of a MLB. He has a similar motor to another former SD State LB Kirk Morrison but bigger and with more talent. I really love this kid and he would be a demon on special teams and either a good rushing linebacker but more likely a great ILB to push for a starting job now or in the future. The kind of guy you want on your team.

4 (133): Trenton Robinson S Michigan State – Robinson is somewhat of a tweener and is a bit small for a safety but he seems like a guy who could make plays and will be assignment sure. He reminds me a bit of Nick Collins but he is a bit smaller and not as physical as a result. At worst I think he could be a dynamite nickel back that forces turnovers.

5 (163): Robert Turbin RB Utah State – I am not sure that the Packers need a running back all that bad but if Turbin is available I would love for the Packers to take him. He has some injury issues in his past but the Packers could roll the dice on him and see what he can do. I think he has the potential to be better than anybody else that they have but right now it is hard to project how Alex Green is going to come back from the ACL injury.
5a: If Turbin is not there then Jeff Adams OT Columbia – Adams reminds me a little bit of a raw version of Riley Reiff. He is much more of a finesse tackle at this point but he is a guy that could develop down the road. He will not play in his first year but could be something after he bulks up a bit. That phrase I hate applies here, draft him on potential alone.

6 (197): Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois – When I look at Chandler Harnish play I see a decent athlete and a heck of a leader. He has the same type of skill set and charisma as Matt Flynn. He would fit well with the Packers and will develop his arm strength and skills with them. Harnish may very well be gone at this point though. If that is the case I say take a chance on the next guy on my list here and sign G.J. Kinney if he goes undrafted.

7 (224): Adrian Robinson OLB Temple – This guy is being a little underrated if you ask me. I had to scramble a little to find more information on him but I think he sounds like a solid player for a 3-4 rush LB. If the Packers follow the draft like I have projected then this causes a major log jam at OLB but I think that is a good thing when you have formations that rely on having 5 linebackers that can play in addition to how much Capers adjusts defenses to fit his personnel.

7 (241): Nicholas Jean-Baptist – Big space eating nose tackle that the Packers could use to shore up the run defense on obvious running downs. I am having a hard time reading where he will go but based off of the general opinion of him he should be at this spot.

7 (243): DeQuan Menzie S/CB Alabama – He does not have any redeeming physical qualities concerning playing safety but he seems to have the will to be good. Maybe he is nothing more than a special teams guy who makes a few emergency starts. He is the type of player that you want on your team who wills his way into big plays.


Okay that about does it for my picks. I am sure that one of these guys that I have a team picking high will drop and somebody from the seventh round will jump up to the third round. I am still at a loss from the Panthers taking Sione Fua in the 3rd round last year and I had him as a 7th?

Thank you for reading!!!

The creation of the greatest thing in the world

One day, Milo sat down in his little mud dwelling and stared at his bucket of water. He thought to himself, "There must be something else to drink other than water." So Milo consulted with the local Shaman who only offered pig's blood as a solution. Milo, being the kosher (of course before there was a such thing as Kosher), decided that he could not bare to drink the blood of an animal respectfully declined. The Shaman being upset with Milo's response, said "Well then go ask your maker!" The shaman, being the forgetful type, could not remember where he left his pointed stick. So by the time he found it Milo was no longer there for him to take his anger out on.

Milo took the Shaman's response literally (not realizing that the Shaman meant to harm him) and climbed the closest mountain. Upon reaching the top he yelled out, "God, give me something else to drink besides water and blood." God opened up the sky and looked at him and said, "Well my dear Milo, I can give you a taste of something wonderful, but it comes with a price." Milo agreed to God's deal. God handed a pitcher down to Milo. Milo took a drink and thought that this new substance was just dandy. So Milo said, "Oh God, what is the price of this liquid?" God looked at Milo and said, "You can drink this substance but if you drink too much you may end up doing things that you would not usually do and tomorrow you may not feel as good as you wish you did. Don't worry though, the effects are temporary." So Milo climbed back down the mountain and went home. Milo had a dandy party with all of his friends that night with this new drink.

The next morning Milo woke up in somebody else's Mud Dwelling. He rolled over and saw the third ugliest woman in the tribe. He also had a bit of a headache as well. Upon walking outside Milo felt sick to his stomach and puked his guts out in a bush. To cover up this embarrassment his took his trusty flint out and lit the bush on fire to dispose of the evidence. Just as he was doing this Bugal, the dirtiest man in the village, asked what the wonderful drink was last night. Milo started to explain the whole story but Bugal was only interested now in the bush on fire and quickly lost interest. Milo, was intrigued by this new drink but was not convinced that it was worth it. So he climbed his mountain again.

Upon reaching the top of the mountain he was again asked God for an alternative. God realized that his joke was not as funny as he originally thought so he decided he would add a little bit of a perk to the next patch. God reached down and handed Milo a green glass pitcher full of a new liquid. Milo tasted it, it was better than the last. Milo climbed down the mountain with this new pitcher. Unfortunately on the way down he tumbled a bit and fell off of the mountain and broke his arms and legs. Thankfully, Lucas, the tribe meat head found him laying in the ground. Lucas proclaimed, "Dude man, you rolled off a mountain like a rock with more of the magic drink!" Lucas carried Milo back to his mud dwelling. Feeling obligated Milo offered to share some of the new drink with Lucas. That night, Lucas drank most of the pitcher and ended up sleeping in Ditzo's, the dumbest woman in the entire tribe, mud dwelling (who also indulged in a glass of the magic drink). The next morning Lucas proclaimed that it was the greatest night ever but he seriously did not remember a thing.

Six months later Milo finally healed up enough to once again climb the mountain and consult with God. Upon reaching the top and consulting with God, God once again felt bad that things did not quite work out with Milo. Unfortunately it was getting to be really cold out and God realized that Milo needed something that was heartier and would make him feel warm during the cold months. So this time God handed a barrel full of creamy dark magic drink to Milo. Milo triumphantly accepts, climbed down the mountain, cooked a hearty meal that night over his fire, and drank this wondrously creamy dark liquid. This new liquid made him feel very full and stout but he had too many leftovers. Still the feeling was satisfying and he could not physically drink enough to make him do something stupid.

This satisfied Milo for a good 9 months. However, Milo still yearned for something that would truly satisfy him, something not so filling but still hearty in these cooler months. So Milo once again climbed his mountain, sat down underneath a tree with orange and red leaves and yelled out, "God, I know you have been generous to me, you have given me everything I have asked of you and given me proper warning, but I just think there may still be something else out there." God opened up his clouds and looked at Milo. "Milo, you have been patient enough I guess, you have trusted my judgment thus far, but now you have tried my patience so I cannot give you anything else!" Milo, being understanding of his demands and how much he has tried God decided that God was right and began to walk away. God feeling bad because Milo was a pretty nice guy stopped Milo before he could climb down. "Listen Milo, I am going to give you the recipe for all of the other drinks and you can make them as you see fit." So God wrote everything down on a stone and handed it to Milo. Still Milo looked sad. So God made one more concession. God said, "Milo, if once a week you come up here and play darts with me I will give you the perfect drink three months out of the year but I will never share the recipe." Milo jumped for joy and agreed to play darts with God (he always let him win). One last question from Milo though, how do I know which recipe is for which drink. God pondered and said he would give each one a nickname after Milo's experiences with them:


Bush Light

Rolling Rock

Stout


Milo asked what he should call the last one. God pondered and said, "Well it is the perfect drink, let's just call it Octoberfest."



The End

To Pearl

To Pearl



I had only known Pearl for a little over three years now but she left her mark upon me. Pearl always smiled and said how beautiful everybody was and how much she loved everybody. In the short time that I knew Pearl I made a promise that I was going to take care of her Granddaughter forever, which I cannot recall if it was verbal or just an understanding. I made the same promise to her husband Phil even though I never had the honor of meeting him. But from the first day that I really sat down to talk to Pearl, I wanted to make sure that she too was happy and knew that she was loved by me. People who really care can have these types of unwritten contracts with each other. Pearl did things because she cared and she was a wonderful human being. The world needed Pearl more than Pearl needed the world. Sunday night, everybody had taken notice of how lovely Pearl looked, that she did not have the wrinkles of somebody who was stressed. That is because the only thing Pearl was capable of was smiling and bringing laughter to everybody. It was little things, like trying to trick me into giving her an extra Werther’s, yelling out “That’s my hat!” during a slideshow at Erika’s 30th birthday party, always saying “Hi honey” when we would come over, being excited about Stacy and I living in her house even though we had only been together for three and a half months, catching her walking without her walker when I came by for a monthly biscotti visit, soft hands, telling me that it was Lori’s teeth in her hands when I knew full well that it was Pearl’s pearls in her hands, knowing that she helped a little neighbor girl who needed a second mother, knowing that when times were bad she was the mediator and the one who could stay calm and sort things out, and the list continues with all of us. One of the things that I am most appreciative of is allowing me to become a part of her family that she made so many sacrifices to create. It saddens me a great deal to see her go but the root of the sadness lies in the fact that she became a part of my family and that she was such a great human being. I know that there were some trying times for Pearl and sometimes it was hard to hang on but I thank her for hanging on as long as she did because I know I speak for so many family and friends when I say that she has shaped me in a way that nobody else could. One of my greatest mentors shared a word with me, Saive, which means everything you do makes me who I am. To Pearl, Saive and thank you for everything you have done to shape me and everything that you have done that will shape my future.



I will love and miss you.

Updated Info -- Draft

New player that i just read about that I think may turn out to be a super sleeper. Big guy from a division III school, may go undrafted but he seems to have some skills and a lot of fight in him. Guy by the name of Daryll Jackson out of Kean University. Not a ton of info on him but he sounds like a solid player to watch. Would not mind him making his way to Green Bay.

Now for my picks for the Packers and Bears

The Packers are in relatively good shape and just need a few players to smooth out the current rough edges as well as plan for the future. I will also list some back-up picks just in case my guy is not available.

Round 1 (23) : Patrick Robinson CB Florida State – Where the Packers pick and with their current needs I think that Robinson is the best player for them to pick. He needs to gain consistency but he has two great ones ahead of him to show him the ropes while he plays the Nickel spot. In a year he will step in and be fantastic. When he has been on he has been amazing so the potential is there and his consistency issues are not attitude related. Back-up: Brandon Graham DE-LB Michigan Jerry Hughes LB TCU

Round 2 (56) : Koa Misi LB Utah – Koa Misi is underrated and he will work his rear off to be better with each passing game (remind you of a draft pick of theirs from last year? He will cause headaches for opponents trying to figure out who is blitzing Matthews or Misi. I like this kid a lot. Back-up: Tyson Alualu

Round 3 (86): Jared Veldheer OL Hillsdale – Veldheer is chock full of potential but he needs time to develop. While a third round pick may be high for somebody who just has potential the gamble is worth it in this case. He will sit behind Chad Clifton, probably play in a game here or there, and take over the position for the next 8-10 years. The Packers need a young tackle and Veldheer fits the bill. Back up: Linval Joseph DT-DE

Round 4(122) Darrell Stuckey Kansas – I think that this guy may be one of the most underrated players in the draft. He has the right combination of coverage skills and likes to hit. While he may not jump out on film I would love to have him on the Packers because they do not need a huge playmaker, they just need consistency and Stuckey will bring it. This may be a little high for him, but I would take him just to secure him being on this team. Back-up: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah CB-S

Round 5 (154)(169) I am torn between a few players:

One of these two running backs:

Trindon Holliday RS-RB-WR – Maybe this seems a little high for a guy that will probably just be a return specialist. Maybe I am dreaming in thinking that he can be a change of pace running back. But I see him filling both rolls and finding a way to get on the field in more than just a returning capacity. Even if he is only a returner I think he is going to be a great one. Small but the kind of guy you want on your team.

Deji Karim RB Southern Illinois – More of a running back then a return man on the surface than Holliday but he will serve the same purpose as Holliday. He is a better running back than anybody else on the Packers minus Grant.

Zoltan Mesko P Michigan State – I think that he is the best bet for punter in this draft, strong leg, played for a real time program, high character, punted in poor weather. He is also a decent athlete and will make a hit if he needs to. That is one thing I really liked about Jon Ryan (The guy the packers never should have cut), he made plays when his punts were about to be blocked and would lay a hit if need be. The only other punter I like is going to be a free agent and that is Scott Ravanessi from Southern Illinois

Myron Rolle S – This only makes sense if the Packers do not draft Stuckey in the fourth round. It kills me that a knock on a guy is leaving to be a Rhodes scholar for a year. Hey, he may be a little out of football shape but that does not take away from how well he played the three years before that.
Back-ups: Jason Fox OT Miami Michael Hoomanawanui TE Illinois

Round 6 (193):

E.J. Wilson North Carolina – He is a little undersized for a 3-4 end but he has a lot of striking similarities to Cullen Jenkins. Okay he is not that caliber of a player but he has enough where he can play the end position for the Packers and rotate in. With the uncertainty of the future at DE with Jenkins and Jolly beyond this season Wilson is worth a look to develop. Back-up: Ed Wang OT Virginia Tech

Or

Patrick Stoudmire CB Western Illinois – I had to run around a bit to get more information on this kid. From what I have read, I think he is a real sleeper. He is quick and tough and still a bit raw—played basketball so he may have some untapped skills. If the Packers do not grab a cornerback at this point I think that he is the right player to grab here. He may also have some return skills but I could not find any info on him doing this in the past.

Round 7 (230) Kevin Matthews C-G – Maybe I just keep thinking about the history of the Matthews, late bloomers and savvy players. Some of the best centers in the NFL are crafty high character and smart players who are not super athletes. Matthews seems to be the same way and it is hard to argue with the success of his Dad. I am not expecting him to be the next Bruce Matthews but maybe the next Franky Winters. Worth taking at this point, even if he takes a year or two on the practice squad.

Back-up: Kelton Tindal WR-RS Newberry – This guy reminds me a little bit of Devin Hester in the sense that he is insanely fast. He is a little smarter than Devin Hester and does not have quite the shiftiness…yet. I think that he is incredibly raw and could develop into something more than a fast kick returner in three years. That is a long time but Donald Driver took two years to show anything outside of practice. Worth a try here.

On the other side, the Bears have a lot more needs than picks and Angelo has really screwed them royally to date. I think that his offseason moves were desperate and he overpaid for everybody. I think that Brandon Malumal….you know who I am talking about and Chester Taylor were good moves but he paid too much. Right now the Bears need to be conservative and get some players that are what they are and forget about potential.

Round 3 (75): Eric Norwood OLB – The Bears have thrived off of tough high character linebackers for a long time and Norwood fits the bill. He has some deficiencies but that is why he is going in the third round. More importantly he will be able to produce right away for the Bears and has a few mentors on this team.

Round 4 (109): Jordan Shipley WR – The bears are chock full of potential players at WR but who is the reliable one? That is why they need Shipley and they need to hang onto him. The Bears gave up too quickly on two other players in the past that went on to become solid third down receivers; Ricky Proehl and Bobby Engram. While neither player was a super star their third down conversion rates were astounding. Shipley can be the third down receiver and will work hi butt off to be a solid player for them.

Round 5 (141): Darrion Stewart S – Another South Carolina Gamecock for the Bears. Stewart is another high character guy who will bust his butt for 60 minutes and he is a decent athlete. I will be surprised, assuming that the Bears draft him, if he is not starting right away but at the very least he will be a core special teamer.

Round 6 (181): Brandon Carter G – As my brother always points out, offensive lineman need some ugly factor (I actually do not know what Carter looks like) but you need a guy who is going to be mean and is a little pissed off at the world. Carter is mean. He plays hard and loves to smash opponents. Olin Kruetz still has this attitude but he has really fallen off, the bears need a player to be a brute again and Carter will do this. Plus their offensive line is weak.

Round 7 (218): Jimmy Saddler-McQueen DT-DE: The Bears need some consistency and they need a guy who is NOT a youtube sensation, just a guy that does his job. Saddler McQueen is probably not a starter but he is a rotation guy that has some value.

No matter what the Bears need a lot more but this type of a draft may assist in winning at least 7 games this year. I am not patronizing, I really think that Angelo has screwed this team up that bad.