(Please see the Lucky Seven Series explanation for more
details on the analysis)
1 - Giovani Bernard – North Carolina
1st picks: Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, C.J.
Spiller, Knowshon Moreno, Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Ronnie
Brown, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, William Green, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal
Lewis
Statistical Analysis:
Statistically speaking, the first player taken at the running back
position has been better than any other spot. The average total yards per season (rushing and
receiving combined) is 1112.08 and the average total touchdowns (rushing and
receiving combined) is 7.32, both are the top among any other draft position. In looking at the consistency of the
spot, the standard deviation for average total yards per season was second best
among the sample. However, it was
the second worst within the sample for average total touchdowns per season. Among the 90 (Excluding David
Irons) this group offers the 2nd best player based on total yards in
the sample in Adrian Peterson and the worst player in the sample was Mark
Ingram at 55th so a span of 53, which ranks as the best span. Essentially, odds are that if you draft
the first running back they will most likely turn out to be pretty good.
This is a group that has been pretty consistently good with
six players averaging over 1000 total yards per season. Steven Jackson is just under the
average of 1500 yards per season mark at 1495 and Adrian Peterson and LaDainian
Tomlinson are over 1500 total yards per season. The level of variance between players shown in the standard
deviation would lead to believing that there is a very good chance that history
supports success at this position.
There were no other running backs drafted out of North
Carolina in the sample so there is no basis for success or failure based on
school.
The Verdict:
History supports that Giovani Bernard should be successful. However, he does not fall into a
workhorse back category like many of the others drafted in this spot. That can be good and bad, William Green
and Mark Ingram were more workhorse back types and both were terrible pass
catchers over their careers and they represent the worst running backs picked
in this spot. Based on the runners
in this group it seems that there is a good chance he could have a similar
career to Reggie Bush (984 average total yards a season with an average of 6.28
touchdowns a season).
2 – LeVeon Bell – Michigan State
2nd picks: Doug Martin, Ryan Williams, Ryan
Mathews, Donald Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Marshawn Lynch, Laurence Maroney,
Cedric Benson, Chris Perry, Larry Johnson, T.J. Duckett, Deuce McAllister, Thomas
Jones
Statistical Analysis: The second pick aligns with being the
second best for average total yards per season and average total touchdowns per
season. Since Doug Martin is
bloating these stats a bit, I eliminated his average to see if it would still
be the second best and this spot still ranks 2nd for total yards
average and is 3rd for total touchdown average. The average total yards per season is
849.35 and the average total touchdowns is 5.31. This means that there is a drastic drop-off between the
quality of player that you get between the first and second player in the
draft. Among the 90 (Excluding
David Irons) this group offers the best player based on total yards in the
sample in Doug Martin and the 83rd best player, and the worst player
in this slot was Ryan Williams so a span of 82.
Another interesting thing to look at is that the worst
average total yards for the first pick is 596.5. Four players fall beneath that threshold for the second pick
and only one player is above the 1500 total yard average mark (Doug Martin of
course). There are only two
instances where a second pick has a better total yards a season average than
the first pick: Ryan Mathews and Doug Martin. Strangely enough, Ryan Matthews has a slightly lower average
touchdown per season and Doug Martin’s is identical.
Only one player in this group was selected outside of round
1, Ryan Williams. At that he was
still selected ten slots ahead of where Le’Veon Bell was selected. Williams is statistically the worst
player selected at this spot in the 2000’s but he is still young so he may
surpass the head scratching (even at the time) selection of Chris Perry in the
first round.
History is working against Bell when it comes to school
attended. Only one other player
selected in the top seven running backs has come from Michigan State, T.J.
Duckett. 55 colleges are
represented within the sample and Michigan State ranks 44 among running backs
in this sample for total yards average and 14th for touchdown average. Duckett was also the second running
back taken in his respective draft.
The Verdict:
History does not exactly support Bell being a superstar nor does the
college program he came from.
However, he is more of a workhorse back than Bernard so he may turn out
better. There is so much boom or
bust in this group it is hard to predict.
More or less, this appears to be a safe spot to pick a player and most
of the players that were supposed to be good turned out to be good. That is to say, generally speaking
Chris Perry and Ryan Williams were not considered to actually be the second
best running backs in their respective draft, they were boneheaded picks. Among the players picked in this
spot he probably looks the most like Jonathon Stewart in that he is a big back
that may be in a running back by committee situation in Pittsburg. Personally, I really like him a lot and
I have said so in the past but history does not support that he will be
anything better than a good back.
3 - Montee Ball - Wisconsin
3rd picks: David Wilson, Shane Vereen, Jahvid
Best, Beanie Wells, Felix Jones, Kenny Irons, DeAngelo Williams, Cadillac
Williams, Kevin Jones, Musa Smith, DeShaun Foster, Michael Bennett, Ron Dayne
Statistical Analysis: This is where things start to get
really interesting. The third
running back taken has not turned out nearly as well as other spots. One exception has been made to this
group, David Irons was not added to the statistics because he never played in
an NFL game. So he is listed but I
did not factor him into the sample.
The average total yards per season was 627.18 and the average total
touchdowns was 3.84. In both cases
this was a major drop off compared to some of the other groups. This slot ranks as 5th in
both average total yards a season and average total touchdowns a season. Interestingly enough, this group had
the smallest standard deviation in both categories. This reveals that historically speaking, teams should know
what they are getting with the third running back taken; average at best. Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons)
this group offers the 22nd (The worst ranking of any 1 group’s top
player)best player based on total yards in the sample in DeAngelo Williams and
the 84th best player in the sample in Musa Smith so a span of
62. This demonstrates the
consistent mediocrity at best history of this slot.
One really interesting thing about this group is that
statistically speaking the second and third best players were both drafted by
the Lions; Jahvid Best and Kevin Jones.
This also tells us how bad this group really is. DeAngelo Williams is the only player with
a 1000+ Total yard average in the entire group. The only player in this group that really sticks out as
being particularly bad is Musa Smith, although he was the lowest draft pick of
the group. David Irons cannot be blamed
for having a career ending injury, but I remember at the time thinking it was a
bit of a reach.
One of the most interesting things to point out about this
position is that Ball is the third Wisconsin running back to be the third
running back selected. That works
against Ball as Wisconsin running backs rank 46th in average rushing
yards per season and 43rd in average touchdowns per season within
the sample. Maybe three times is a
charm for Wisconsin running backs but Ball seems to have two things working
against him.
The Verdict:
History has shown that very mediocre at best running backs have been
taken at this slot. To compound on
this, Wisconsin running backs in the sample have been particularly weak. While this isn’t the worst slot based
on averages per season it hosts the worst top player in DeAngelo Williams by
over 300 yards average. That is
quite a margin. Sorry Montee but
history is working against you on this one, he looks like he will be a bust
based on history.
4 – Eddie Lacy – Alabama
4th Picks: Isaiah Pead, Mikel Leshoure, Dexter
McCluster ,
LeSean McCoy, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Henry, Joseph Addai, J.J. Arrington,
Tatum Bell, Chris Brown, Clinton Portis, Anthony Thomas, Shaun Alexander
Statistical Analysis:
So we have arrived at the spot that inspired me to do this analysis. The average total yards per season was
742.46 and the average total touchdowns was 5.11—a marked improvement over the
previous position with a ranking of 4th for average total yards and
third for average total touchdowns.
The standard deviation for total yards was 418.07 and total touchdowns
was 3.93 which ranks as fourth and seventh respectively. This represents some interesting
inconsistencies between players.
Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 12th
best player based on total yards in the sample in LeSean McCoy and the second
worst player (89th) in the sample in Chris Henry so a span of
77. Strangely enough, Henry was
picked with the 50th pick and McCoy with the 53rd pick in
their respective drafts. Four players in this group have an
average of over 1000 total yards per season with nobody making it to the 1500
mark.
This is an interesting group of running backs as you have a
lot of smaller guys and role players but also some workhorse backs. The oddball pick, even at the time, was
J.J. Arrington as he was considered to be more of a kick returner than anything
else and just a few years later the Cardinals picked a similar player in LaRod
Stephens-Howling in the 7th round instead of the 2nd
round and their production for the Cardinals was similar except LSH was a
better kick returner. You also get
players like Tatum Bell who was just a flash in the pan and may have had one of
the strangest incidents in recent memory when he stole Rudi Johnson’s
luggage.
Alabama running backs have been a real mixed bag in the
NFL. Trent Richardson looks to be
a solid player and Shaun Alexander was very good for a long time. However, Mark Ingram has been average
and Glenn Coffee flipped out and retired after one year, though he looked
promising his rookie year.
Alabama ranks as the 22nd best school based on total yards
and 7th for total touchdowns.
The Verdict:
History supports that this is a boom or bust pick in both the players
chosen in this slot as well as the players drafted from Alabama. With that said, the only truly poor
pick from Alabama was Glenn Coffee with Ingram being at least average. As much as I would love to say that
Lacy will be dynamite, history would dictate that he has a 50/50 shot at being
good.
5 – Christine Michael – Texas A & M
5th picks: LaMichael James, Daniel Thomas, Toby
Gerhart, Shonn Greene, Chris Johnson, Brian Leonard, LenDale White, Eric
Shelton, Julius Jones, Justin Fargas, Maurice Morris, LaMont Jordan, Trung
Canidate
Statistical Analysis:
The average total yards per season was 587.28 and the average total
touchdowns was 2.84. In both cases
this is a significantly poor slot for running backs as that ranks 6th
and 7th respectively.
The standard deviation for total yards was 410.61 and total touchdowns
was 2.59 which ranks as third and second respectively. Essentially, the odds are that if you
take a running back in this slot, he will not be good. Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons)
this group offers the 3rd best player based on total yards in the
sample in Chris Johnson and the worst player (90th) in the sample in
Eric Shelton so a span of 87, the worst span of any group. Interestingly enough both Chris Johnson
and Trung Canidate were both still first round picks—compared to this past
draft where the Michael was the last pick of the second round. One player in this group has
an average of over 1000 total yards per season and is above the 1500 mark,
Chris Johnson of course.
This is an interesting spot for me because there are so many
players I had strong feelings about when they were coming out of college. Interestingly enough Christine Michael
is coming into a situation where there is a very good established running back
or two (Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin). Many of the running backs picked in this slot were in the
same situation: LaMichael James (Frank Gore), Toby Gerhart (Adrian Peterson), Brian
Leonard (Steven Jackson), Justin Fargas (A stable of running backs including
Charlie Garner and Tyrone Wheatly), Maurice Morris (Shaun Alexander), and Trung
Canidate (Marshall Faulk). In most
of these cases, these were running backs that were mid-career so the drafting
of these players meant that they were going to be role players more than
anything else.
Texas A&M has only had one other player in the top seven
in the 2000s, Mike Goodson.
Goodson is a different type of running back, more of a speed back. However, there are some interesting
similarities in that both will be considered role players. Goodson also had a similar experience
in falling out of favor while at A&M just as Michael has. Texas A&M ranks as 48 for total
yards and 49 for total touchdowns.
The Verdict: There is a lot working against Michael in this
slot as there are some terrible inconsistencies with players and some very bad
players that were overdrafted.
However, based on the needs of the Seahawks, they are probably just
looking for a role player and history supports this being a spot for role
players. If the Seahawks are
looking for a replacement for Lynch, this spot would dictate that Michael will
be a failure.
6 – Knile Davis - Arkansas
6th picks:
Ronnie Hillman, Demarco Murray, Ben Tate, Glen Coffee, Matt Forte,
Brandon Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Mewelde Moore, Artose Pinner,
Ladell Betts, Travis Henry, Travis Prentice
Statistical Analysis: The average total yards per season was
752.85 and the average total touchdowns was 3.87. In both cases this is a very good slot for running backs as
that ranks 3rd and 4th respectively. The standard deviation for total yards was 448.44 and total
touchdowns was 2.95 which ranks as third and second respectively. The consistency tells us that odds are
you will get one of the top producing running backs in the draft, though there
is some bust factor involved.
Among the 90 (Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 6th
best player based on total yards in the sample and the lowest ranking was
Artose Pinner at 82 so a span of 76 so slightly better than the 4th
running back taken. An interesting
thing to note on this group is that if we look at players that have a combined
number of 1400 yards average, this group has the second most (to the first
players picked) with three.
There have been two Arkansas running backs to be in the top
7 since 2000 and they played together—Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. While neither has set the league on
fire, McFadden has been dynamic when healthy and Jones has been decent, though
neither has lived up to their high draft status. With that said, Arkansas ranks as the 20th for
average combined yards in the sample 28th average touchdowns (out of
55). Things do not look terrible
with Davis for this spot based on the history of the school.
This group sports three backs that have been consistent
solid contributors to their teams.
Demarco Murray may eventually be added to that group if he stays
healthy. It is hard to factor in a
player like Coffee, who showed potential but just gave up (or had his calling
if you wish to believe that). But
for the most part everybody in this group had some form of solid contribution
at some point in their careers even if they were short careers.
The Verdict: History would support that Davis turns out to
be at least decent. He is coming
into a situation where he will be given a very good shot to be a contributor
and, given Jamaal Charles’ injury history, may have a shot to start some games
this year. Given that this is a
pretty consistent slot, Davis appears to be more boom than bust and his school
history supports that.
7 – Jonathan Franklin – UCLA
7th picks: Johnathan Franklin, Bernard Pierce,
Stevan Ridley, Montario Hardesty, Mike Goodson, Ray Rice, Lorenzo Booker, Brian
Calhoun, Vernand Morency, Michael Turner, Domanick Davis, Lamar Gordon, James
Jackson, J.R. Redmond
Statistical Analysis: The average total yards per season was
574.29 and the average total touchdowns was 2.89. This ranks as 7th and 6th
respectively. The standard
deviation for total yards was 488.29 and total touchdowns was 3.33 which ranks
as 7th and 5th respectively. The inconsistency among running backs shows that this is a
boom or bust slot. Among the 90
(Excluding David Irons) this group offers the 5th best player based
on total yards in the sample and the lowest ranking was Brian Calhoun at 88 so
a span of 83, the second worst among the sample. This group has one player who is above 1500 total yards a
season on average in Ray Rice with Dominick Davis just a hair behind at
1490. These lead us to see that
there is a large amount of boom or bust factor with this group, leaning more
towards the bust factor.
When you get this far into the draft, there will be more
role players by nature. However,
this is still a group of players that have had a solid shot at playing and most
have not turned out to be successful.
It is also interesting to look at a player like Michael Turner who was
behind Tomlinson for a number of years so his stats are a little
misleading. Looking back though,
there is no reason that Ray Rice should have been the seventh running back
taken given his college career.
You also have the enigma that is Domanick Davis’ career. This is a strange group to say the
least.
There were two instances of players coming out of UCLA,
DeShaun Foster and Maurice Jones-Drew.
So history would support that this is again a boom or semi-bust type of
situation. DeShaun Foster’s
biggest issue was his attitude and ego.
What makes Jones-Drew the way he is, is his chip on his shoulder
attitude. Franklin is more
Jones-Drew than Foster.
The Verdict: It
is interesting to see players as good as Ray Rice in this slot and the support
of very good players (Foster had talent he was just an egomaniac) from the same
school as Franklin. However, this
slot marks the biggest group of boom or bust players and there is a lack of
consistency. This leads me to
believe that Franklin is truly a 50/50 shot but unlike most players in this
slot, he will have a better opportunity than most to play right away. Just because I like my Packers and I
love the pick, he is different than Foster and I could imagine his career being
right in-between the two from UCLA.
So there you have it.
There are a significant number of interesting things you can see from
these statistics and I will continue on with perhaps a few other postings on
Lucky Seven and these stats.
