With the draft about a month away I wanted to get out Mock Draft 1.0. The Standard Rules apply here that I cannot project a trade (which will never happen) so I will only mention that I think they may trade down. So here goes, who I think they should take and who they will take.
1. Buccaneers
Who they will pick: QB Jameis Winston – however I think that the Bucs are bluffing this pick ala the Chargers and really want to trade out of this pick. I am not a fan of Winston and his antics and I don’t think anybody should touch him in the first round.
Who they should pick: QB Marcus Mariota - If they did not need a QB as bad as they do, I would go elsewhere. Mariota seems nervous and hyper in the pocket. I am not seeing the Aaron Rodgers comparison that so many people have made.
2. Titans
Who they will pick: QB Marcus Mariota – I believe that the Titans have been eying Mariota this whole time and do not buy that they would prefer Leonard Williams.
Who they should pick: DL Leonard Williams – I think Mettenberger (and why not Monmouth Alum Alex Tanney for that matter) deserves a shot at the starting position at QB. The Titans DL does not have much in the way of disruptive players and a lot of blue collar, Williams makes a great deal of sense here.
3. Jaguars
Who they will pick: DE/OLB Dante Fowler Jr. – He seems like the type of player that Gus Bradley likes on Defense. I am not sure where he fits between OLB and DE or moving between the two. Bradley seems to be creative enough to find a good way to use him.
Who they should pick: WR Kevin White - The Jaguars would be better off trying to drop down a few slots and draft a WR or even OL. You have to both protect and help your investment in a young QB. White has more potential than Cooper. There simply is not an elite OL (Plus they do have Joekel) worthy of this spot, so go for the offensive weapon, the Jags can address the defense later.
4. Raiders
Who they will pick: DL Leonard Williams – While the Raiders need to give Carr a few more weapons, Williams is too much of a difference maker to let go at this point. I am not totally convinced that he is as dominate as he appeared in college but he would be tough to pass up. I really think the Raiders are looking to drop down if they can.
Who they should pick: DL Danny Shelton – If the Raiders do not trade down (they should if there is a taker) this pick makes a lot of sense to me. Shelton can play all three 3-4 positions if they go with a 3-4 and a creative defensive mind could figure out an interesting position for him in a 4-3, such as a staggered 4-3. I think that they could nab a WR in the second and/or third round. Take this scenario for example: Dorial Green-Beckham falls into the 2nd round and they grab him (I personally would prefer WR Breshard Perriman at that point) and then they grab Phillip Dorsett in the 3rd or 4th? For some reason, I really see Dorsett as a Raider.
5. Redskins
Who they will pick: OLB Vic Beasley – This is a reactionary pick because they lost Orakpo but I am not sure if Beasley is the right player here. Maybe it is the Clemson talking.
Who they should pick: OLB Alvin Dupree – This is a bit of a stretch but I think he is going to be the better pick at this point. I think Dupree will rise up in the next month.
6. Jets
Who they will pick: RB Todd Gurley – The Jets had a pretty poor running game last year that may lead to them taking a chance here. I have a feeling that the potential upside of Gurley will be too much to pass up at this point. I know RBs have fallen out of favor for top consideration recently but with the 2013 class being as strong as it was, teams may go back to drafting them high. I just have a strange feeling about this one, I could be way off.
Who they should pick: OLB Vic Beasley – The issue here is that both Shelton and Williams are gone and both would help this team in a weak spot. They also should consider taking Scherff here to solidify their offensive line. Every one of the top pass rushers have question marks so this is a go big or go home kind of moment, despite the rate of Clemson players that look good in college but stink in the pros.
7. Bears
Who they will pick: NT Danny Shelton – In this case, it is a no brainer (or should be) as athletic big men are hard to find, you need a NT for the 3-4, and Shelton is ripe for the picking at this point.
Who they should pick: CB Trae Waynes – Since Shelton is gone in this scenario the Bears should go ahead and fill in another major need. Waynes is the feisty type of cornerback that has been successful with the Bears in the last decade. Another strong consideration should be Landon Collins because they Bears have been just terrible at safety since Mike Brown.
8. Falcons
Who they will pick: OL Brandon Scherff – Sam Baker should have never been a first round draft pick and they have given him too much time on this team. Scherff should be able to start at RT but if not they can use him at guard. I know this seems early for either of those positions but Matt Ryan needs some protection and Scherff will help a lot.
Who they should pick: Scherff is the right pick here, I am a big fan of building a strong OL. Think about when the 49ers drafted Davis and Iupati in the first round of the same draft, a strong OL makes a good RB great and turns a smart QB like Ryan into a top QB. Although at this point, it is going to be tough to pass up on Gordon or Gurley.
9. Giants
Who they will pick: DE/OLB Alvin Dupree – The Giants used to stock pile pass rushers but the well is a bit dry right now so they will go after Dupree.
Who they should pick: OT La’el Collins – The Giants need to fix their offensive line bad and I never understood the Pugh pick from two years ago. Collins will be a solid starter on the OL and juice it up a bit.
10. Rams
Who they will pick: WR Kevin White – The Rams have WRs that are number 2s and slots, White will be that number 1 they have been looking for (it is not Kenny Britt).
Who they should pick: WR Amari Cooper – The same reasons as above but White is not available so go with WR 1a. Although Cooper may not be the answer in the end.
11. Vikings
Who they will pick: WR Amari Cooper – The Vikings need to give Bridgewater more reliable targets. While I have always liked Charles Johnson and did not like losing him off the Packers practice squad, he is not a dominant player so Cooper makes sense here. I know they have Patterson and Wallace but both are teases.
Who they should pick: RB Todd Gurley – With the top WRs gone (I do not think DeVante Parker is worth this pick at all) the Vikings have enough to be patient with Gurley and he is the best player on the board at a position of semi-need. They need to cut the cord with Peterson for the sake of their franchise.
12. Browns
Who they will pick: WR DeVante Parker – This is a reactionary pick but will end the run on WRs. Last year the Browns had every opportunity to bring in a WR and did not. This is a must now. I do not really think Parker is as good as he is rated.
Who they should pick: QB Jameis Winston – Obviously this will never happen but in this scenario he is worth this pick. I know that Johnny Football is in rehab and they drafted him in the first round last year, but Winston has a lot of talent and has character issues. Johnny Football is just bad all around. I never understood why they traded back into the first round for him (see last year’s opinion on him). Winston might also react better to a quieter city.
13. Saints
Who they will pick: DE/OLB Shane Ray – Prior to the CJ Spiller signing I would say that Melvin Gordon would be the pick but Ray is too talented to pass up at this point and the Saints could use another younger outside rusher.
Who they should pick: DE/OLB Shane Ray – Ray is the best pick here, though the Saints should really take a long look at Cornerback or OT as well.
14. Dolphins
Who they will pick: CB Trae Waynes – At this point, the Dolphins need a CB and Waynes is the best in the draft. They have struggled to find a good one since drafting Vontae Davis (who they traded away and has been better away from Miami).
Who they should pick: OT T.J. Clemmings – I know they went OT last year in round 1 and they have Brandon Alberts, but Alberts is hurt too much and Clemmings can fill in wherever they need him. Giving Tannehill this much protection will allow him to put up or shut up and give the running backs some room to run.
15. 49ers
Who they will pick: ILB Denzel Perryman – The 49ers are experiencing an offseason like no other and are a quantifiable mess, some of which is their own fault. They cannot miss out on their top ILB in the first round and Perryman could be pretty good. They need somebody to take a leadership role on the defense and fast.
Who they should pick: OLB Randy Gregory – I am still not sure where he fits in but he has desire and talent and the 49ers need to bring in some swagger without the insanity. It is a tossup here between Gregory and Fowler because they both have holes in their game but a lot of potential.
16. Texans
Who they will pick: OT La’el Collins – The Texans will need to protect whichever average QB that is behind center and Duane Brown is getting long in the tooth so Collins can jump in at RT and eventually take over at LT. WR is a consideration but they also just signed Cecil Shorts
Who they should pick: RB Melvin Gordon – Gordon can complement Arian Foster at this stage and eventually work his way to being the starter in a few years. This will also take some pressure off of the QB.
17. Chargers
Who they will pick: RB Melvin Gordon – There will be major consideration for an OT, especially with some potentially good ones on the board, but in the end, Gordon is a difference maker and that is what the Chargers need at RB.
Who they should pick: OT Ereck Flowers – I am not totally sold on Flowers just yet, but the Chargers did not read my blog when they drafted DJ Fluker (what were they thinking not reading my blog?) and King Dunlap is a stop gap solution who has been hot and cold his entire career.
18. Chiefs
Who they will pick: CB Jalen Collins – The Chiefs need to seriously consider their offensive line but they could also use a cornerback, in the end they go with a CB.
Who they should pick: WR Dorial Green-Beckham – I think this would be one of the few scenarios that would work for Green-Beckham. With Andy Reid and Jeremy Maclin providing leadership plus the need that the Chiefs have at WR I think DGB has his best shot with the Chiefs but clearly this is a major risk/reward situation.
19. Browns
Who they will pick: TE Maxx Williams – The WR class is deep and they can grab two WRs later. Williams is not worth this pick really, but he is the best of the lot. He lacks speed but some of the best TEs in the league did not run fast. They will not have a shot at him in the second so go for it here.
Who they should pick: Maxx Williams – Even though it is a reach, the Browns need a TE that can be a safety blanket for whichever QB lines up under center. You know with Williams that he will give it his all and both block and catch the ball.
20. Eagles
Who they will pick: DE Arick Armstead – I thought Chip Kelly knew what he was doing until last year...then the offseason. I think Kelly will think he can mold Armstead but I just see a perennial tease here.
Who they should pick: S Landon Collins – I was a bit torn, I think G or OT would be really smart here but they can help their offensive line later. Collins makes the most sense here.
21. Bengals
Who they will pick: OT Ereck Flowers – Looking over the board there certainly could be some consideration for a DT or G, but looking over the current OL Flowers seems to be the best fit.
Who they should pick: C Cameron Erving – Erving may be better than any guard in this draft (unless you are calling Scherff a guard). Given the need at OL and the size of Erving he seems to be the best fit.
22. Steelers
Who they will pick: OT T.J. Clemmings – The once great “Blitzberg” defense is no more and they have a lot of holes considering how much they have invested in their front seven. However, they never seem to get it right with OT either and Clemmings has as much potential as anybody at OT so they will go that route.
Who they should pick: CB Jalen Collins – As bad as their OTs look, their CBs are even worse and getting older. Collins is a bit of a gamble but the Steelers would be smart to take him here and at least one other DB later in the draft…perhaps even in the second round if a good OL is not there for them.
23. Lions
Who they will pick: DT Malcolm Brown – The Lions lost both DTs and need to reload even with Ngata. Brown is the best available at this point, but he really serves more of the finesse up tackle so a bigger DT or NT will need to be brought in down the road.
Who they should pick: DT Carl Davis – The position is right, but I think Davis is rising and has a lot more upside than Brown. Davis was the best player at the Senior Bowl this year and really took advantage and showed what he could do.
24. Cardinals
Who they will pick: OLB Randy Gregory – The Cardinals have been good at identifying talented players and using that players strengths while finding ways to compensate for their weaknesses. They may also be tempted to grab Shaq Thompson for the same reasons but in the end it will be the upside of Gregory.
Who they should pick: DE/OLB Dante Fowler – Again I know that he would be long gone by this point but this is the player that makes the most sense in this scenario for the reasons I just outlined with Gregory.
25. Panthers
Who they will pick: S Landon Collins – While the Panthers still need to fix their offensive line, safety is another need and passing on a talent like Collins and go for an OL that may not be close to this level. However, this also means that reaching on OL in the second round or later is a must.
Who they should pick: OT Andrus Peat – The Panthers need to rebuild their OL still and Peat should be solid at either LT or RT, though he has some concerns he is worth it at this point.
26. Ravens
Who they will pick: DT Jordan Phillips –The Ravens need to reload in their defensive front seven, with no legit pass rushers available at this point they will go with a DL and Phillips has the size and talent to be a difference maker.
Who they should pick: WR Jaelen Strong – Joe Flacco is an okay QB which means he needs to have good receivers to throw to. Strong can be that possession receiver that could stick with the team for years. The defense will be addressed later.
27. Cowboys
Who they will pick: WR Dorial Green-Beckham – While this is not a major need for the Cowboys, they always seem to get intrigued by WRs like this (Antonio Bryant and Dez Bryant for example). A big roll of the dice that may pay dividends which seems to be Jones’ calling card so it makes sense.
Who they should pick: DT Malcolm Brown – The Cowboys need a quicker pass rushing DT and Brown is the best fit for up tackle at this point. Like I said earlier, I think that Davis has more potential than Brown but Brown should be good enough. He is not quite as bad as Armstead but it seems like he has never quite lived up to his billing.
28. Broncos
Who they will pick: OT Andrus Peat – The Broncos need to protect Peyton Manning a bit more than they need to get him some new targets and Peat should start out at RT and then eventually replace Clady. However, there is something missing with Peat, he does not seem to have that mean temperament that makes offensive lineman what they are. With that said, I said the same thing about Clady and he has worked out just fine for the Broncos.
Who they should pick: OLB/S Shaq Thompson – Thompson is somewhat of an enigma and I would guess that if you asked all 32 teams what position you would play him at only half would say OLB. With that said, he seems like a good fit for the Broncos at LB and will bring an interesting energy and dynamic to the defense, particularly if Von Miller is healthy and has his head on straight.
29. Colts
Who they will pick: DT Carl Davis – There is a great deal to consider here but Davis fills a need (most likely will be moved to DE in this scenario) and is potentially the most disruptive player available. There should be some consideration here for Shaq Thompson and Cameron Erving also.
Who they should pick: OT Jake Fisher – I am really high on Jake Fisher and I think he could turn out to be the best OT in this draft. However, he is a bit lanky so he may be just okay as a rookie. He can play the RT and then they can get rid of the awful decision to give Gosder Cherilus all the money that they gave him.
30. Packers
Who they will pick: ILB Eric Kendricks – I have made it no secret that Kendricks is one of my favorite players in this draft. He should be here and his value as the Will ILB in the 3-4 should be high for the Packers. I keep thinking about successful players in the 3-4 at ILB and guys like Kendricks have worked out well for the most part.
Who they should pick: ILB Eric Kendricks – He is the perfect fit in my book.
31. Saints
Who they will pick: ILB Benardrick McKinney – The Saints push for defense continues with a player that has the potential to be a dominant ILB if he gets his head on straight and focuses. OL will be tempting but McKinney could be special and there are not as many special prospects at OL here (though as stated I really like Jake Fisher).
Who they should pick: ILB Denzel Perryman – The same reasons as outlined for McKinney but I like Perryman a little better.
32. Patriots
Who they will pick: DT Eddie Goldman – The Patriots need more big men and Goldman has the potential to be a good run stuffer and decent pass rusher.
Who they should pick: DT Eddie Goldman is a very good fit for the Patriots so it only makes sense to pick him up here.
So there you have it! Let us see what the next month looks like and how much these things could change.
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