The top ten picks (no trades allowed) pre-combine

So this is my prediction of how the top ten should go, not how it will go.  This could change a bit as we get closer to the draft but I wanted to get one in before the combine.

1.       Texans – Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville.  Even though I like Carr better, he would never get a fair shot in Houston from the fan base.  The Texans are not the worst team in the NFL, they just fell apart.  They have a solid base to build around and just need a QB.  With that said, they have enough there right now to where Bridgewater can ease his way in and does not need to start right away.  Option 2 here is to go with Bortles but I think that is a riskier pick.  Option 3 is to trade out if somebody is willing to offer anything. 

2.       Rams – Jake Matthews OT Texas A & M.  No question for me here, Matthews is exactly what the Rams need here.  I am always a believer in building from the line out but in this case, they have a solid base behind the line.  There is always some degree of bias with a legacy player.  In this case, most of the Matthews have been solid if not good in the NFL so my guess is he will live up to the legacy.  With the Rams also having the 13^th pick, this could be one of those drafts where they can re-construct their line, which appears to be the big weak link on their team.  At the 13^th pick, odds are the top guard (whoever they feels is the top guard) would be available.  Go ask the 49ers about drafting an OT and G in the first round in the same draft, it seemed to work out really well.

3.       Jags – Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina.  This was a tough one for me.  The Jaguars are pushing it as the worst team in the league for me. I was never totally sold on Gabbert but I thought he would be decent.  Going QB makes a lot of sense here but I also think that when you have a defensive minded coach and you bring in a freakish athlete like Clowney, it will be a good thing.  Option 2 here is Derek Carr.

4.       Browns – Derek Carr QB Fresno State.  I have already said that I think that Carr will be the best QB in this draft.  The Browns have enough tools with the line and one really talented wide receiver and a few others with potential.  With that said, I think that his success ultimately will lie in how quickly he is pushed (remember they still have Hoyer) and if they bring in a legit RB.  Could he be the one that will turn this franchise around?  I think so but I doubt that they will go in this direction.  The other option that may work out at this point is to roll the dice with Hoyer and trade out of this spot because it is too early to address any of their major needs and this pick has some value.  Option 3 for me is to go with Anthony Barr and move him inside since they run a 3-4 since it sounds like D’quell Jackson may be on his way out.  With that said, that may be a waste of his talents because he may be better outside. 

5.       Raiders – Blake Bortles QB C. Florida.  Bortles is no sure thing but I am pretty sure he can beat out what they have and there are tools in the toolbox for him to use.  Again, I don’t love the way he delivers the ball but he has a good attitude and he may be able to put it together for the Raiders.  Option 2 has to be Anthony Barr.  If the Raiders were not so QB needy, I would say it is a cinch for me here; Barr plays like a raider and is a leader.  The more I read about him and the more I have seen of him, the more I like him.    

6.       Falcons – Greg Robinson OT Auburn.  To me, this is another no brainer.  The Falcons need to solidify their line that was bad last year.  Sam Baker never took the next step and was always supposed to be better.  In the case of this draft the second best tackle is probably still better than the best OT from last year.  Robinson reminds me a little of Tyron Smith in that he has a huge upside but there is a little bit of bust factor to him (I was really wrong about Smith when he came out).  With that said, Robinson would be a gift for the Falcons and it is unlikely that he will not be available so there is no Option 2 other than, trade down if somebody wants to.

7.       Buccaneers – Sammy Watkins WR Clemson.  It obviously pains me to put anybody from Clemson up this high.  I am sorry Clemson, but your history is bad.  However, there is no QB worth taking here and I think that Glennon is very suspect.  So what is the best way to cover that up, add a WR that has crazy athletic skills to go with your other WR that has crazy athletic skills.  Option 2 really needs to be in the same vein, somebody to help a sub-par QB.  So with that in mind Eric Ebron TE North Carolina is a very solid option.  He has his negatives but a good TE has proven to be valuable to almost every great QB except Kurt Warner. 

8.       Vikings – Mike Evans WR Texas A & M.  Let us make no bones about it, I really dislike the Vikings.  But that is because they are rivals to the Packers and Bears.  I also have to admit, they had a good draft last year and have some solid young players.  Finally, I hate to admit that I think that they should take Mike Evans, because I think Evans is going to be very good in the NFL.  This would be a very good pick for them at a position of need and that is aging.  But the biggest reason that Evans would be a good fit for this team is because they could ease him in and that is what he needs.  He is still raw and still needs to refine his game.  The Vikings can afford to give him 10 plays a game.

9.       Bills – Taylor Lewan OT Michigan.  This is a “protect your investment” pick.  Lewan is borderline just as good as the top three OT taken last year so it is not out of the question that three would be taken in the top 10 this year.  Lewan is not on the same level as the top two picks but he is good and sometimes on an O-Line that is all you need.  Reminds me a bit of former Wolverine Jon Jansen. 

10.   Lions – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix S Alabama.  Again, this is a pick that will pain me to see but with the release of Delmas, the Lions have a clear need at Safety.  HCD is an interesting prospect because he appears to be a very good at everything type of safety.  In other words, don’t look for him to blow somebody up but he will hit.  In a way, that is probably a good thing, safeties that miss on a hit are not doing their job—which apparently was one of the problems with Delmas.  I would love for him to fall down to the Packers but that seems very unlikely and my guess is that he will be taken right in this area of the draft.

That does it for today but I will begin doing the usual research soon and give a more extensive perspective along with focusing in on a few teams: Packers, Bears, Browns, and Raiders or any other special requests.

Thank you for reading and sorry that I had to double up today (see below), I wanted to get this in before the combine.

Pre-Combine QB Ranks

Sorry, I am going to have to double up on posts today.

So last year the consensus was that Geno Smith would be a first round pick and was the best QB, I had EJ Manuel as my favorite and well, he went first.  I am going to hold strong that Manuel will be the only good QB to come out of that class.  With such a weak group last year we have a potentially strong group this year and a lot of teams that really need a QB.  With that said, I am going to compare this class with the 1999 class where we saw 5 QBs taken in the first 12 picks.  What to learn from this, #1 the 1999 draft featured some QBs where teams should have known better. 

First and foremost (I wish I had a blog back then so I could prove my opinion) Akili Smith was somebody I was really wondering about at the time.  I mean, he had like ½ of a good senior year and everybody went crazy over him.  That is red flag my friends.  #2 Cade McNown, he was known to be a very cocky player in college and was ultimately investigated for making a fake handicap parking pass.  I think the Bears knew they were in trouble when he was driving to training camp after signing his big contract but did not have enough money to pay a toll.  #3 Red flag that year Daunte Culpepper came from a smaller school (at the time not so much anymore) and could have gone elsewhere, so you question if he was scared to have a higher caliber of competition.  I was wrong about him, he had some very good years but only when he had the supporting cast. 

At the time I felt that Donovan McNabb and Tim Couch were the can’t miss prospects in that order.  I remember watching McNabb in his Junior year and just thinking, Wow this guy is a leader!  I hate to admit it, but I thought McNown was the third best and that Culpepper and Smith would be huge busts.  I still can’t figure out what went wrong with Couch.

Here is some food for thought from the 1999 draft: 

The Bengals took a bust of a cornerback in the second round and they needed to fix their offensive line.  Instead of taking Akili Smith, they could have taken Champ Bailey in the first round and then in the second round taken Jon Jansen.  Then in the fourth round instead of taking a bust of a WR in Craig Yeast, taken Aaron Brooks.  I know Brooks was never dynamite but in his best season, he was actually one of the top QBs in the league.

Let’s take the same basic scenario but with the Bears.  Instead of taking McNown, they could have taken Jevon Kearse in the first and instead of either Roosevelt Colvin or Warrick Holdman (He would have filled the role of either) in the 4^th taken Brooks.  With that said, the 1999 draft for the Bears was chock full of misses.  Their 2^nd round pick didn’t even make the roster his rookie year, that is bad.

So, the point is that sacrificing your franchise for a QB that may or may not work out can kill you, we know this already.  But more to the point, what are the red flags, and what are the odds that two of the top four or five QBs even turn out?  Things will start to ramp up soon but it looks like there is a possibility that four or five QBs will be taken in the top 10.  I have a growing suspicion that the Vikings will do a repeat of what they did in 2011 and reach for a QB in the first when they really need to roll the dice and take somebody later.

1.       Derek Carr – Fresno State.  Derek Carr had some early troubles with maturity, but he is past that and has a good head on his shoulders now.  The biggest thing he has going against him is his last name.  I still to this day think that David Carr could have been a good QB in the NFL but everybody wanted to change his awkward throwing motion (remember the ladder incident?).  To top that all off, he was shell shocked with a terrible offensive line.  Derek is better than his brother and I think he is the only one that should or could start from day 1.

2.       Teddy Bridgewater – Louisville.  Teddy has a lot of raw skills and he is a winner and he has a lot of experience at this point.  I still do not think he is a finished product.  Even though I made the comparison to the 1999 draft, I am going to go all the way back to 1995 for a comparison.  I think that Teddy needs to be treated like Steve McNair and could be a lot better than McNair.  Those were back in the days when you could take a few years with a QB to make sure he is ready.  Considering that there are essentially five quarterback needy teams in the top 8 that all need somebody now, this does not bode well for Teddy.  However, think about how the Eagles treated McNabb, he did not start right away and they eased him in.  Bridgewater might be able to pull that same schedule off.

3.       Blake Bortles – Central Florida.  Again, Central Florida is now a more competitive school than when Culpepper came out so the jump in competition is not quite as bad.  I have to admit, I do not know as much about Bortles at this point than I would like.  A part of me is just trying to assess if Bortles is legit or not.  Great stature and athletic ability, but I don’t like the way that he throws the ball.  He floats too much it seems.  I am not sold that he is as good as the media is making him out to be but I can see him being solid.  The thing that he has going for him is the chip (see Jimmy Garoppolo) on his shoulder attitude—to me this is an often ignored positive trait in a QB.

This is where I draw the line of guys possibly worthy of a 1^st round pick.

4.       Jimmy Garoppolo – Eastern Illinois.  This is a guy that has been rising a lot.  I really like him a lot too.  He has taken the country by storm with his performances in both the Shrine game and the Senior Bowl.  I like how he throws the ball, he has quick release, and I think he plays with a quiet chip on his shoulder similar to Aaron Rodgers.  It is unfair to compare him to Tony Romo just because they went to the same school.  Garoppolo has more raw tools than Romo ever did.  With all of that said, he needs time to develop.  I think if he goes in the second to a team that is willing to have him sit and learn for a half season or season, they will have a very good QB.  There is something in the way that he plays that I can’t quite place but I really like him.

5.       AJ McCarren – Alabama.  McCarren is one that I am back and forth on.  He has some moments where he threads the needle and makes some very good plays.  He has some not so good moments as well.  In a way I feel like he is a slightly more talented Andy Dalton.  That guy that is good enough to win but you are always thinking you can get better.  One thought could be that a team like the Texans roll the dice in the first round and go a different direction and then scoop him up in the second. Of course, with the need at QB in the top 8 of the draft, he could go too early like Ponder did.  I think McCarren is going to be similar to Trent Dilfer.  Considering the QBs to come out of Alabama for the last 50 years, he should be solid.

I don’t think this is how things will go at all.  This is just my opinion.  Notice, I have excluded Johnny Manziel.  So here we go with my wild prediction and an explanation.  Johnny Manziel will ruin a head coach’s job somewhere and ruin a franchise.

What do Cade McNown, Jeff George, and Ryan Leaf all have in common?  There is a fine line between confidence and cockiness.  All of those QBs had better QB skills than Manziel does.  If you look at Jeff George in particular, he had unbelievable skills and had some moments in his career but his attitude poisoned his teams everywhere he went.  The only QB in the NFL right now that I would say is cocky and successful is Colin Kapernick, and I don’t think he is going to continue the way he has (loved him coming out of school and can’t stand him now).  You want your quarterback to be able to bring the team together and say, “We can win” not “I can win”.  Manziel seems to only care about himself and his legacy.  I remember the first time I saw him and I thought, “Kids good, he can sustain a drive, but he does not have NFL skills”.  I was surprised to hear his name being talked about as a 1^st round pick this year.  He reminds me of a more skillful Tebow but with a terrible attitude.  As I said before, playing with a chip on your shoulder can be a good thing, but too much of a chip is harmful.  I think he is an untouchable.

Lucky Seven Post Season

For some reason it looks like the original post was not showing up properly so I did an update to see if that reposts it.

Lucky 7 Running Backs post-season

Based on the statistical analysis done before the season history would dictate that by the end of the season the rankings of the top running backs taken based on total yards would be:

1.       Giovani Bernard

2.       Le'Veon Bell

3.       Knile Davis

4.       Eddie Lacy

5.       Montee Ball

6.       Christine Michael

7.       Johnathan Franklin

For total TDs

1.       Giovani Bernard

2.       Le'Veon Bell

3.       Eddie Lacy

4.       Knile Davis

5.       Montee Ball

6.       Johnathan Franklin

7.       Christine Michael

Post Season reality turned out to be (rankings are for both total TDs and total yards.  Bell and Bernard are tied for 2^nd with 8TDs):

1.       Eddie Lacy

2.       Le'Veon Bell

3.       Giovani Bernard

4.       Montee Ball

5.       Knile Davis

6.       Johnathan Franklin

7.       Christine Michael

Their stats are as follows:

Player (Spot taken in order of appearance)	Total Yards	Total Touchdowns
Giovani Bernard	1209	8
Le'Veon Bell	1259	8
Montee Ball	704	4
Eddie Lacy	1435	11
Christine Michael	79	0
Knile Davis	317	4
Johnathan Franklin	137	1

One of the most interesting pieces to the analysis is just how good the top four running backs taken were compared to other players taken in those respective spots as well as compared to other running backs from that respective school.

To analyze their impact as rookies I looked at a few things.  First, the over/under of the average of each slot compared to the rookie year each player had:

Player (Spot taken in order of appearance)	Over/Under Total Yards based on spot	Over/Under Total TD based on spot
Giovani Bernard	96.92	0.68
Le'Veon Bell	409.65	2.69
Montee Ball	76.82	0.16
Eddie Lacy	692.54	5.89
Christine Michael	-508.28	-2.84
Knile Davis	-435.85	0.13
Johnathan Franklin	-437.29	-1.89

Since Bernard is the only running back taken out of North Carolina (and only the second true HB in the 2000’s) his data is a bit skewered regarding the college analysis.  What is astounding to me is looking at just how much better the top four have been compared to the average of other players taken from the same schools in the top seven since 2000:

Spot taken	Player	Over/Under TY based on school	Over/Under TTD based on school
1	Giovani Bernard	1209	8
2	Le'Veon Bell	813.71	1.71
3	Montee Ball	325.84	2.03
4	Eddie Lacy	581.57	3.39
5	Christine Michael	-245	-1
6	Knile Davis	-540	0.3
7	Johnathan Franklin	-956.51	-5.61

So clearly the idea of history being able to accurately predict how each running back would turn out is not quite accurate.  However, this season showed us that there was an exceptionally talented pool of top four running backs and strangely enough, no major injuries.  The ironic part of course is that there were no 1^st rounder picks in the group.  Contrast that with the year 2000 or 2008 where five running backs went in the first round.  Furthermore, take a look at some of those running backs taken in 2013 and you could clearly make a better choice with any of the top 4 this year.  So, statistical rabbit hole was fun this year. 


Next stop is the 2014 draft and the year of the QB (That is what I am calling it at least).

Again, if you want the Lucky 7 spreadsheet please shoot me an email AndreMarshallSmith@gmail.com