Thursday, February 20, 2014

The top ten picks (no trades allowed) pre-combine

So this is my prediction of how the top ten should go, not how it will go.  This could change a bit as we get closer to the draft but I wanted to get one in before the combine.

1.       Texans – Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville.  Even though I like Carr better, he would never get a fair shot in Houston from the fan base.  The Texans are not the worst team in the NFL, they just fell apart.  They have a solid base to build around and just need a QB.  With that said, they have enough there right now to where Bridgewater can ease his way in and does not need to start right away.  Option 2 here is to go with Bortles but I think that is a riskier pick.  Option 3 is to trade out if somebody is willing to offer anything. 

2.       Rams – Jake Matthews OT Texas A & M.  No question for me here, Matthews is exactly what the Rams need here.  I am always a believer in building from the line out but in this case, they have a solid base behind the line.  There is always some degree of bias with a legacy player.  In this case, most of the Matthews have been solid if not good in the NFL so my guess is he will live up to the legacy.  With the Rams also having the 13th pick, this could be one of those drafts where they can re-construct their line, which appears to be the big weak link on their team.  At the 13th pick, odds are the top guard (whoever they feels is the top guard) would be available.  Go ask the 49ers about drafting an OT and G in the first round in the same draft, it seemed to work out really well.


3.       Jags – Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina.  This was a tough one for me.  The Jaguars are pushing it as the worst team in the league for me. I was never totally sold on Gabbert but I thought he would be decent.  Going QB makes a lot of sense here but I also think that when you have a defensive minded coach and you bring in a freakish athlete like Clowney, it will be a good thing.  Option 2 here is Derek Carr.

4.       Browns – Derek Carr QB Fresno State.  I have already said that I think that Carr will be the best QB in this draft.  The Browns have enough tools with the line and one really talented wide receiver and a few others with potential.  With that said, I think that his success ultimately will lie in how quickly he is pushed (remember they still have Hoyer) and if they bring in a legit RB.  Could he be the one that will turn this franchise around?  I think so but I doubt that they will go in this direction.  The other option that may work out at this point is to roll the dice with Hoyer and trade out of this spot because it is too early to address any of their major needs and this pick has some value.  Option 3 for me is to go with Anthony Barr and move him inside since they run a 3-4 since it sounds like D’quell Jackson may be on his way out.  With that said, that may be a waste of his talents because he may be better outside. 


5.       Raiders – Blake Bortles QB C. Florida.  Bortles is no sure thing but I am pretty sure he can beat out what they have and there are tools in the toolbox for him to use.  Again, I don’t love the way he delivers the ball but he has a good attitude and he may be able to put it together for the Raiders.  Option 2 has to be Anthony Barr.  If the Raiders were not so QB needy, I would say it is a cinch for me here; Barr plays like a raider and is a leader.  The more I read about him and the more I have seen of him, the more I like him.    

6.       Falcons – Greg Robinson OT Auburn.  To me, this is another no brainer.  The Falcons need to solidify their line that was bad last year.  Sam Baker never took the next step and was always supposed to be better.  In the case of this draft the second best tackle is probably still better than the best OT from last year.  Robinson reminds me a little of Tyron Smith in that he has a huge upside but there is a little bit of bust factor to him (I was really wrong about Smith when he came out).  With that said, Robinson would be a gift for the Falcons and it is unlikely that he will not be available so there is no Option 2 other than, trade down if somebody wants to.


7.       Buccaneers – Sammy Watkins WR Clemson.  It obviously pains me to put anybody from Clemson up this high.  I am sorry Clemson, but your history is bad.  However, there is no QB worth taking here and I think that Glennon is very suspect.  So what is the best way to cover that up, add a WR that has crazy athletic skills to go with your other WR that has crazy athletic skills.  Option 2 really needs to be in the same vein, somebody to help a sub-par QB.  So with that in mind Eric Ebron TE North Carolina is a very solid option.  He has his negatives but a good TE has proven to be valuable to almost every great QB except Kurt Warner. 

8.       Vikings – Mike Evans WR Texas A & M.  Let us make no bones about it, I really dislike the Vikings.  But that is because they are rivals to the Packers and Bears.  I also have to admit, they had a good draft last year and have some solid young players.  Finally, I hate to admit that I think that they should take Mike Evans, because I think Evans is going to be very good in the NFL.  This would be a very good pick for them at a position of need and that is aging.  But the biggest reason that Evans would be a good fit for this team is because they could ease him in and that is what he needs.  He is still raw and still needs to refine his game.  The Vikings can afford to give him 10 plays a game.


9.       Bills – Taylor Lewan OT Michigan.  This is a “protect your investment” pick.  Lewan is borderline just as good as the top three OT taken last year so it is not out of the question that three would be taken in the top 10 this year.  Lewan is not on the same level as the top two picks but he is good and sometimes on an O-Line that is all you need.  Reminds me a bit of former Wolverine Jon Jansen. 

10.   Lions – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix S Alabama.  Again, this is a pick that will pain me to see but with the release of Delmas, the Lions have a clear need at Safety.  HCD is an interesting prospect because he appears to be a very good at everything type of safety.  In other words, don’t look for him to blow somebody up but he will hit.  In a way, that is probably a good thing, safeties that miss on a hit are not doing their job—which apparently was one of the problems with Delmas.  I would love for him to fall down to the Packers but that seems very unlikely and my guess is that he will be taken right in this area of the draft.

That does it for today but I will begin doing the usual research soon and give a more extensive perspective along with focusing in on a few teams: Packers, Bears, Browns, and Raiders or any other special requests.


Thank you for reading and sorry that I had to double up today (see below), I wanted to get this in before the combine.

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