Lucky 7 Running Backs post-season
Based on the statistical analysis
done before the season history would dictate that by the end of the season the
rankings of the top running backs taken based on total yards would be:
1.
Giovani Bernard
2.
Le'Veon Bell
3.
Knile Davis
4.
Eddie Lacy
5.
Montee Ball
6.
Christine Michael
7.
Johnathan Franklin
For total TDs
1.
Giovani Bernard
2.
Le'Veon Bell
3.
Eddie Lacy
4.
Knile Davis
5.
Montee Ball
6.
Johnathan Franklin
7.
Christine Michael
Post Season reality turned out to
be (rankings are for both total TDs and total yards. Bell and Bernard are tied for 2nd
with 8TDs):
1.
Eddie Lacy
2.
Le'Veon Bell
3.
Giovani Bernard
4.
Montee Ball
5.
Knile Davis
6.
Johnathan Franklin
7.
Christine Michael
Their stats are as follows:
Player
(Spot taken in order of appearance)
|
Total Yards
|
Total Touchdowns
|
Giovani
Bernard
|
1209
|
8
|
Le'Veon
Bell
|
1259
|
8
|
Montee
Ball
|
704
|
4
|
Eddie
Lacy
|
1435
|
11
|
Christine
Michael
|
79
|
0
|
Knile
Davis
|
317
|
4
|
Johnathan
Franklin
|
137
|
1
|
One of the most interesting pieces
to the analysis is just how good the top four running backs taken were compared
to other players taken in those respective spots as well as compared to other
running backs from that respective school.
To analyze their impact as rookies
I looked at a few things. First, the
over/under of the average of each slot compared to the rookie year each player
had:
Player
(Spot taken in order of appearance)
|
Over/Under Total Yards based on spot
|
Over/Under Total TD based on spot
|
Giovani
Bernard
|
96.92
|
0.68
|
Le'Veon
Bell
|
409.65
|
2.69
|
Montee
Ball
|
76.82
|
0.16
|
Eddie
Lacy
|
692.54
|
5.89
|
Christine
Michael
|
-508.28
|
-2.84
|
Knile
Davis
|
-435.85
|
0.13
|
Johnathan
Franklin
|
-437.29
|
-1.89
|
Since Bernard is the only running
back taken out of North Carolina (and only the second true HB in the 2000’s)
his data is a bit skewered regarding the college analysis. What is astounding to me is looking at just
how much better the top four have been compared to the average of other players
taken from the same schools in the top seven since 2000:
Spot
taken
|
Player
|
Over/Under TY based on school
|
Over/Under TTD based on school
|
1
|
Giovani
Bernard
|
1209
|
8
|
2
|
Le'Veon
Bell
|
813.71
|
1.71
|
3
|
Montee
Ball
|
325.84
|
2.03
|
4
|
Eddie
Lacy
|
581.57
|
3.39
|
5
|
Christine
Michael
|
-245
|
-1
|
6
|
Knile
Davis
|
-540
|
0.3
|
7
|
Johnathan
Franklin
|
-956.51
|
-5.61
|
So clearly the idea of history
being able to accurately predict how each running back would turn out is not
quite accurate. However, this season
showed us that there was an exceptionally talented pool of top four running
backs and strangely enough, no major injuries.
The ironic part of course is that there were no 1st rounder
picks in the group. Contrast that with
the year 2000 or 2008 where five running backs went in the first round. Furthermore, take a look at some of those
running backs taken in 2013 and you could clearly make a better choice with any
of the top 4 this year. So, statistical
rabbit hole was fun this year.
Next stop is the 2014 draft and the year of the QB (That is what I am calling it at least).
Next stop is the 2014 draft and the year of the QB (That is what I am calling it at least).
Again, if you want the Lucky 7 spreadsheet please shoot me an email AndreMarshallSmith@gmail.com
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