Sorry, I am going to have to double up on posts today.
So last year the consensus was that Geno Smith would be a
first round pick and was the best QB, I had EJ Manuel as my favorite and well,
he went first. I am going to hold strong
that Manuel will be the only good QB to come out of that class. With such a weak group last year we have a
potentially strong group this year and a lot of teams that really need a
QB. With that said, I am going to
compare this class with the 1999 class where we saw 5 QBs taken in the first 12
picks. What to learn from this, #1 the
1999 draft featured some QBs where teams should have known better.
First and foremost (I wish I had a blog back then so I could
prove my opinion) Akili Smith was somebody I was really wondering about at the
time. I mean, he had like ½ of a good
senior year and everybody went crazy over him.
That is red flag my friends. #2
Cade McNown, he was known to be a very cocky player in college and was
ultimately investigated for making a fake handicap parking pass. I think the Bears knew they were in trouble
when he was driving to training camp after signing his big contract but did not
have enough money to pay a toll. #3 Red
flag that year Daunte Culpepper came from a smaller school (at the time not so
much anymore) and could have gone elsewhere, so you question if he was scared
to have a higher caliber of competition.
I was wrong about him, he had some very good years but only when he had
the supporting cast.
At the time I felt that Donovan McNabb and Tim Couch were
the can’t miss prospects in that order.
I remember watching McNabb in his Junior year and just thinking, Wow
this guy is a leader! I hate to admit
it, but I thought McNown was the third best and that Culpepper and Smith would
be huge busts. I still can’t figure out
what went wrong with Couch.
Here is some food for thought from the 1999 draft:
The Bengals took a bust of a cornerback in the second round
and they needed to fix their offensive line.
Instead of taking Akili Smith, they could have taken Champ Bailey in the
first round and then in the second round taken Jon Jansen. Then in the fourth round instead of taking a
bust of a WR in Craig Yeast, taken Aaron Brooks. I know Brooks was never dynamite but in his
best season, he was actually one of the top QBs in the league.
Let’s take the same basic scenario but with the Bears. Instead of taking McNown, they could have
taken Jevon Kearse in the first and instead of either Roosevelt Colvin or
Warrick Holdman (He would have filled the role of either) in the 4th
taken Brooks. With that said, the 1999
draft for the Bears was chock full of misses.
Their 2nd round pick didn’t even make the roster his rookie
year, that is bad.
So, the point is that sacrificing your franchise for a QB
that may or may not work out can kill you, we know this already. But more to the point, what are the red
flags, and what are the odds that two of the top four or five QBs even turn
out? Things will start to ramp up soon
but it looks like there is a possibility that four or five QBs will be taken in
the top 10. I have a growing suspicion
that the Vikings will do a repeat of what they did in 2011 and reach for a QB
in the first when they really need to roll the dice and take somebody later.
1.
Derek Carr – Fresno State. Derek Carr had some early troubles with
maturity, but he is past that and has a good head on his shoulders now. The biggest thing he has going against him is
his last name. I still to this day think
that David Carr could have been a good QB in the NFL but everybody wanted to
change his awkward throwing motion (remember the ladder incident?). To top that all off, he was shell shocked
with a terrible offensive line. Derek is
better than his brother and I think he is the only one that should or could
start from day 1.
2.
Teddy Bridgewater – Louisville. Teddy has a lot of raw skills and he is a
winner and he has a lot of experience at this point. I still do not think he is a finished
product. Even though I made the
comparison to the 1999 draft, I am going to go all the way back to 1995 for a
comparison. I think that Teddy needs to
be treated like Steve McNair and could be a lot better than McNair. Those were back in the days when you could
take a few years with a QB to make sure he is ready. Considering that there are essentially five
quarterback needy teams in the top 8 that all need somebody now, this does not
bode well for Teddy. However, think
about how the Eagles treated McNabb, he did not start right away and they eased
him in. Bridgewater might be able to
pull that same schedule off.
3.
Blake Bortles – Central Florida. Again, Central Florida is now a more
competitive school than when Culpepper came out so the jump in competition is
not quite as bad. I have to admit, I do
not know as much about Bortles at this point than I would like. A part of me is just trying to assess if
Bortles is legit or not. Great stature
and athletic ability, but I don’t like the way that he throws the ball. He floats too much it seems. I am not sold that he is as good as the media
is making him out to be but I can see him being solid. The thing that he has going for him is the
chip (see Jimmy Garoppolo) on his shoulder attitude—to me this is an often
ignored positive trait in a QB.
This is where I draw the line of
guys possibly worthy of a 1st round pick.
4.
Jimmy Garoppolo – Eastern Illinois. This is a guy that has been rising a
lot. I really like him a lot too. He has taken the country by storm with his performances
in both the Shrine game and the Senior Bowl.
I like how he throws the ball, he has quick release, and I think he
plays with a quiet chip on his shoulder similar to Aaron Rodgers. It is unfair to compare him to Tony Romo just
because they went to the same school.
Garoppolo has more raw tools than Romo ever did. With all of that said, he needs time to
develop. I think if he goes in the
second to a team that is willing to have him sit and learn for a half season or
season, they will have a very good QB.
There is something in the way that he plays that I can’t quite place but
I really like him.
5.
AJ McCarren – Alabama. McCarren is one that I am back and forth
on. He has some moments where he threads
the needle and makes some very good plays.
He has some not so good moments as well.
In a way I feel like he is a slightly more talented Andy Dalton. That guy that is good enough to win but you
are always thinking you can get better.
One thought could be that a team like the Texans roll the dice in the
first round and go a different direction and then scoop him up in the second.
Of course, with the need at QB in the top 8 of the draft, he could go too early
like Ponder did. I think McCarren is
going to be similar to Trent Dilfer.
Considering the QBs to come out of Alabama for the last 50 years, he
should be solid.
I don’t think this is how things will go at all. This is just my opinion. Notice, I have excluded Johnny Manziel. So here we go with my wild prediction and an
explanation. Johnny Manziel will ruin a
head coach’s job somewhere and ruin a franchise.
What do Cade McNown, Jeff George, and Ryan Leaf all have in
common? There is a fine line between
confidence and cockiness. All of those
QBs had better QB skills than Manziel does.
If you look at Jeff George in particular, he had unbelievable skills and
had some moments in his career but his attitude poisoned his teams everywhere
he went. The only QB in the NFL right
now that I would say is cocky and successful is Colin Kapernick, and I don’t
think he is going to continue the way he has (loved him coming out of school
and can’t stand him now). You want your
quarterback to be able to bring the team together and say, “We can win” not “I
can win”. Manziel seems to only care
about himself and his legacy. I remember
the first time I saw him and I thought, “Kids good, he can sustain a drive, but
he does not have NFL skills”. I was
surprised to hear his name being talked about as a 1st round pick
this year. He reminds me of a more
skillful Tebow but with a terrible attitude.
As I said before, playing with a chip on your shoulder can be a good
thing, but too much of a chip is harmful.
I think he is an untouchable.
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